Ukraine: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country Oct. 20-23 before calmer conditions prevail through Oct. 27 /update 5

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
A weather front is expected to bring a spell of precipitation and a drop in temperatures across much of Ukraine Oct. 20-23 before more stable conditions prevail through Oct. 27. After above seasonal average temperatures and little precipitation in recent days, the weather front began moving over the country from northwestern Europe Oct. 19 and will cause a cooling in temperatures across much of the country and bring rainfall to central, eastern, and northern regions Oct. 20. Snow is likely over the Carpathian mountains and snow or sleet is possible in parts of northern and central Ukraine. Strong winds are also possible during the passing of the weather front, with officials warning residents in Odesa Oblast of possible disruptions Oct. 20 due to winds of 55-72 kph (34-45 mph).

Further cooling is expected Oct. 21, with precipitation predominantly concentrated in eastern regions. A slight rise in temperatures is expected Oct. 22-23; however, rainfall will persist in much of the country, with the exception of some southeastern and western regions. Temperatures are expected to remain warm for the time of year across much of the country from Oct. 24-Oct. 27, although scattered showers are likely to continue across much of the country.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Light rainfall forecast Oct. 20, 23, 25, and 26. Largely dry and cloudy Oct. 21-22 and 24. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-13 C (48-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-7 C (36-45 F).

• Luhansk: Moderate rainfall forecast Oct. 20 and cloudy Oct. 21-22. Further showers forecast Oct. 23-26. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-13 C (48-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-9 C (36-48 F).

• Donetsk: Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast Oct. 20 and partly cloudy Oct. 21-22 and Oct. 24. Further showers forecast Oct. 23 and 25-26. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-14 C (50-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-8 C (36-46 F).

• Mariupol: Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast Oct. 20 and partly cloudy Oct. 21-22. Moderate rainfall forecast Oct. 23 and mostly dry and cloudy Oct. 24-25. Further showers forecast Oct. 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-15 C (54-59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-11 C (37-52 F).

• Kherson: Windy and cloudy Oct. 20 and largely dry and cloudy Oct. 21-22. Moderate rainfall forecast Oct. 23 and mostly dry and cloudy Oct. 24-25. Further showers forecast Oct. 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-19 C (48-66 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-6 C (37-43 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast Oct. 20 and mostly dry and cloudy Oct. 21-22. Light rainfall forecast Oct. 23 and 26 and mostly cloudy Oct. 24-25. Maximum daytime temperatures 8-16 C (46-61F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-9 C (36-48 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Moderate rainfall forecast Oct. 20. Largely dry and partly cloudy Oct. 21-22, 24, and 26. Light showers forecast Oct. 23 and 25. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-13 C (48-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-8 C (34-46 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light rainfall forecast Oct. 20. Largely dry and partly cloudy Oct. 21-22. Moderate rainfall forecast Oct. 23 and light rainfall Oct. 24-26. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-14 C (52-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-7 C (34-45 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Moderate rainfall forecast late Oct. 20. Largely dry and partly cloudy conditions Oct. 21-25. Further moderate rainfall Oct. 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-15 C (52-59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-11 C (37-52 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Oct. 20, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange strong wind warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) across Crimea and yellow heavy rainfall and forest fire warnings for parts of Crimea and across Rostov regions. Yellow strong winds warnings have been issued for Rostov Region and yellow forest fire warnings for Krasnodar Krai. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
If significant rainfall occurs, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting maritime freight traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Context

With the conflict in Ukraine ongoing into the autumn, the changing weather conditions are likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region, especially as winter approaches. Increased precipitation in the autumn months could cause flooding, affecting key rivers in the conflict region, inundating roads, and complicating travel over unpaved routes, which would inhibit the ability of both sides to sustain operations. When the coldest months of December-February arrive, temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring