Malaysia: General elections to occur nationwide Nov. 19

Event

Malaysia will hold its 15th general election Nov. 19. More than 20 million Malaysians are likely to vote throughout the country for 222 parliamentary seats, as well as the state legislative seats of Pahang, Perlis, and Perak. Some key battleground states in the upcoming election include Kelantan, Sabah, and Terengganu. Campaign events and rallies are likely to occur with greater frequency from nomination day Nov. 5, through Nov. 19. The largest gatherings could draw thousands of participants and are likely in major cities and state capitals, such as Kuala Lumpur. Rallies are possible at popular venues such as prominent roadways and intersections, public squares, landmarks, and outside shopping centers. Turnout at voting centers and campaign rallies could be lower than in the past as potential floods during the monsoon season may prevent people from traveling.

Authorities will almost certainly bolster security throughout the campaign period and on election day. Heightened security is likely at nomination centers Nov. 5 and voting and counting centers Nov. 19. While minor skirmishes could break out during rallies, particularly between supporters of opposing camps, the threat of politically motivated violence is low. Authorities could erect roadblocks and security checks near larger rallies throughout the country and at nomination, voting, and counting centers, which may prompt localized business and transport disruptions. Allegations of vote tampering and electoral fraud could lead to civil unrest during and after the election.

Context

Malaysia has experienced political uncertainty since voters ousted the BN coalition, led by the Malay nationalist United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party, for the first time since independence in 2018. UMNO returned to power in August 2021 following power struggles that resulted in the collapse of the PH government led by veteran politician Mahathir Mohamad and the subsequent resignation of former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin from the PN coalition.

Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob dissolved parliament Oct. 10 in an attempt to consolidate the ruling UMNO’s position and expand its slim legislative majority after positive results in the recent Melaka and Johor state elections. Opposition parties have criticized the move to hold the elections now, given the risk of disruptions during the monsoon flood season which typically starts in late November. Nevertheless, UMNO leaders appear motivated to hold the elections before economic conditions worsen and to capitalize on a fragmented opposition.

Advice

Avoid all campaign rallies, party offices, polling stations, and counting centers, as a precaution. Seek updated information from local sources for updates on events, as organizers may not announce details in advance. Use alternative routes to avoid election-related events; allow additional time to reach destinations. Confirm business appointments Nov. 19.