North Korea: Pyongyang reportedly launches ballistic missile toward East Sea Nov. 2

Event

North Korea reportedly fired a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) toward the East Sea (Sea of Japan) Nov. 2. South Korean authorities did not immediately report the SRBM’s exact flight path or distance; air raid sirens sounded in South Korea's Ulleung County as the projectile traveled near Ulleungdo Island. There were no immediate reports of damage, injuries, or transport disruptions in connection with the incident.

Context

The SRBM launch is almost certainly intended to coincide with the joint military exercise Vigilant Storm between US and South Korea that began Oct. 31. Pyongyang has repeatedly launched missiles and projectiles in recent weeks to protest US and South Korean military drills, which North Korean leaders consider practice for an invasion. North Korea fired hundreds of artillery Oct. 17 and 18 into a maritime buffer zone between the two countries. A North Korean merchant ship also crossed the Northern Limit Line, the disputed maritime border in the West Sea (Yellow Sea), prompting South Korean Navy ships to fire warning shots Oct. 24. Additional North Korean provocations remain likely. US and South Korean officials also continue to warn that Pyongyang plans to conduct another nuclear test in the near term.

Despite attempts at jumpstarting diplomacy, the geopolitical dynamics on the Korean Peninsula remain largely unaltered, as North Korea has previously stated that it will only give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for concrete moves to reduce perceived US threats against it. North Korean leaders have previously warned of stronger actions in response to the latest US sanctions. However, both sides will likely avoid any actions that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.