Ukraine: Wintry precipitation forecast nationwide through at least Nov. 24 /update 9

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Wintry precipitation is forecast across much of Ukraine through at least Nov. 24. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has warned of a significant change in conditions across much of the country from Nov. 17, with moderate rainfall, sleet, snowfall, and strong winds possible across much of the country over the coming days. The precipitation is expected to be accompanied by a drop in temperatures. Snow accumulations are possible in some northern, western, and central areas, including Kyiv, with rainfall and thunderstorms more likely in southern regions. The heaviest snowfall is likely to occur Nov. 19 and strong winds could cause blizzard conditions in some areas. Hazardous travel conditions are likely due to icy roads and reduced visibility caused by blowing snow.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Rain and sleet forecast Nov. 17-19. Snow transitioning to rain Nov. 20 and rain and sleet Nov. 21. Light rainfall Nov. 22-23. Maximum daytime temperatures 0-9 C (32-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5-5 C (23-41 F).

• Luhansk: Light rainfall forecast Nov. 17 and rain and sleet Nov. 18. Snow transitioning to rain Nov. 19-20 and rain and sleet Nov. 21. Light rainfall Nov. 22 and largely dry and cloudy Nov. 23. Maximum daytime temperatures -1-9 C (30-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-12 C (28-54 F).

• Donetsk: Light rainfall forecast Nov. 17 and rain and sleet Nov. 18. Snow transitioning to rain Nov. 19-20 and rain and sleet Nov. 21. Light rainfall forecast Nov. 22-23. Maximum daytime temperatures 1-11 C (34-52 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-11 C (30-52 F).

• Mariupol: Light rainfall forecast Nov. 17 and rain and sleet Nov. 18. Snow transitioning to rain Nov. 19-20 and rain and sleet Nov. 21. Light rainfall forecast Nov, 22-23. Maximum daytime temperatures 7-11 C (45-52 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-11 C (37-52 F).

• Kherson: Moderate to heavy rainfall forecast Nov. 17-19 and light to moderate rainfall Nov. 20-23. Maximum daytime temperatures 5-12 C (41-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-8 C (37-46 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Moderate to heavy rainfall forecast Nov. 17-19 and light to moderate rainfall Nov. 20-23. Maximum daytime temperatures 5-12 C (41-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-8 C (36-48 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light snowfall is forecast Nov. 17 and largely dry and cold Nov. 18. Sleet and wintry precipitation forecast Nov. 19-20 and light rainfall Nov. 21-22. Largely dry Nov. 23. Maximum daytime temperatures -1-9 C (30-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -6-4 C (21-39 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Wintry showers, including rain and sleet, forecast Nov. 17-22. Largely dry and cloudy Nov 23. Maximum daytime temperatures 0-10 C (32-50 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5-5 C (23-41 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast Nov. 17-19. Largely dry and cloudy Nov. 20-23. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-14 C (48-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-10 C (37-50 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Nov. 17, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange heavy rain and sleet warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) and yellow rainfall, thunderstorm, and avalanche warnings for Krasnodar Krai. Orange heavy rain and forest fire, yellow thunderstorm, and orange and yellow strong warnings have been issued across Crimea. Yellow rainfall, fog, and strong wind warnings have been issued for Rostive warnings. Yellow snow and ice warnings have been issued for Kursk and Voronezh regions, as well as yellow freezing rain and sleet warnings for Voronezh Region and yellow fog warnings for Belgorod Region. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
If significant rainfall occurs, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting maritime freight traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Context

Changing weather conditions during the fall season are likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region, especially as winter approaches. Increased precipitation in the coming months could cause flooding, affecting key rivers in the conflict region, inundating roads, and complicating travel over unpaved routes, which would inhibit the ability of both sides to sustain operations. This is often referred to by the Russian term 'Rasputitsa', which translates as 'season of bad roads' and refers to the period where both fall and spring rains (as well as the thaw of winter snow in the spring) create muddy conditions and make travel difficult on unpaved roads or off-road. When the coldest months of December-February arrive, temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring