Ukraine: Wintry precipitation forecast nationwide through at least Dec. 1 /update 10

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Wintry precipitation is forecast to continue across much of Ukraine through at least Dec. 1. Precipitation is mainly forecast to fall as rain and sleet over much of the country Nov. 24-26, with little significant precipitation expected in eastern regions Nov. 24-26 and western regions Nov. 25-26. Light snowfall is forecast in western regions Nov. 27-28 and northern regions Nov. 28, as well as further rain and sleet in eastern regions Nov. 27. A mix of rainfall, sleet, and snow are likely to continue to fall over parts of Ukraine through the end of November. Temperatures are likely to remain a few degrees above freezing during the day and a little below freezing at night. Fog is possible in the mornings and at night. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has issued a warning a yellow ice warning across western and northern regions as of Nov. 24. Officials may issue further warnings as conditions evolve in the coming days. Hazardous travel conditions are likely due to icy roads and reduced visibility caused by fog and blowing snow.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Cloudy without significant precipitation Nov. 24-26 and Nov. 28-30. Rain and sleet forecast Nov. 27. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-5 C (36-41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-5 C (28-41 F).

• Luhansk: Cloudy without significant precipitation Nov. 24-26 and Nov. 28-30. Light rainfall forecast Nov. 27. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-7 C (36-45F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4-5 C (25-41 F).

• Donetsk: Cloudy without significant precipitation Nov. 24-26 and Nov. 28-30. Light rainfall forecast Nov. 27. Maximum daytime temperatures 3-9 C (37-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-6 C (28-43 F).

• Mariupol: Cloudy without significant precipitation Nov. 24-26 and Nov. 28. Light rainfall forecast Nov. 27 and dry with gusty winds Nov. 29-30. Maximum daytime temperatures 5-9 C (41-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-8 C (37-48 F).

• Kherson: Light to moderate rainfall forecast Nov. 24-26. Cloudly with little precipitation Nov. 27-28 and Nov. 30. Further light showers forecast Nov. 29. Maximum daytime temperatures 4-13 C (39-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-7 C (34-45 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Cloudy without significant precipitation Nov. 24 and Nov. 28-30. Light to moderate rainfall forecast Nov. 25-27. Maximum daytime temperatures 4-11 C (39-52 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-5 C (36-41 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Cloudy with little precipitation Nov. 24-26 and Nov. 29-30. Wintry precipitation forecast Nov. 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures -1-3 C (30-37 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4-1 C (25-34 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Cloudy with little precipitation Nov. 24-25 and Nov. 29-30. Light rainfall forecast Nov. 26 and wintry precipitation Nov. 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 0-4 C (32-39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4-1 C (25-34 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Nov. 24-26 and Nov. 28-30. Light rainfall forecast Nov. 27. Maximum daytime temperatures 1-10 C (34-50 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-5 C (30-41 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Nov. 24, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following warnings over areas neighboring Ukraine that could potentially impact supply chains:

• Yellow ice warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale): Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts.

• Yellow fog warnings: Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts.

• Yellow freezing rain and sleet warning: Bryansk Oblast.

• Yellow forest fire warning: Krasnodar Kray.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
If significant rainfall occurs, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting maritime freight traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Context

Changing weather conditions during the fall season are likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region, especially as winter approaches. Increased precipitation in the coming months could cause flooding, affecting key rivers in the conflict region, inundating roads, and complicating travel over unpaved routes, which would inhibit the ability of both sides to sustain operations. This is often referred to by the Russian term 'Rasputitsa', which translates as 'season of bad roads' and refers to the period where both fall and spring rains (as well as the thaw of winter snow in the spring) create muddy conditions and make travel difficult on unpaved roads or off-road. When the coldest months of December-February arrive, temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring