Ukraine: Showers and some wintry precipitation forecast across much of the country through at least Dec. 29 /update 14

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Scattered showers are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least Dec. 29, with sleet and snow possible in some regions. Rainfall and sleet are expected in northern regions Dec. 22, with little precipitation forecast across the rest of the country. Light rainfall is expected to occur across much of the country Dec. 23-27, with occasional heavier downpours. Sleet is forecast in western regions Dec. 23 and central and northern regions Dec. 25. Snow is also possible in northwestern regions Dec. 26 and western and eastern regions Dec. 27. Temperatures are generally expected to remain a few degrees above freezing during the day and close to 0 C (32 F) at night.

Persistent precipitation and thawing snow in recent days has led to river levels rising in parts of Ukraine, particularly in northern and western river basins. Yellow hydrological warnings (level 1 on a four-tier scale) have been issued for the Pripyat and Western Bug river basins as of Dec. 22 due to a risk of possible overflow into floodplains. Orange and yellow avalanche warnings (levels 3 and 2 on a five tier-scale) have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains Dec. 22-23. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days. Hazardous travel conditions are likely in areas where temperatures drop below freezing due to icy roads. Fog is also possible, which could reduce visibility.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 22. Light rainfall possible Dec. 23-26 and light snow forecast Dec. 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 0-5 C (32-41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-4 C (30-39 F).

• Luhansk: Cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 22-23. Light rainfall possible Dec. 24-27 and mixed wintry precipitation forecast Dec. 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 0-4 C (32-39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-2 C (28-36 F).

• Donetsk: Cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 22-23. Light rainfall possible Dec. 24-27 and light snowfall forecast Dec. 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 1-5 C (34-41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-4 C (28-39 F).

• Mariupol: Cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 22-23. Light rainfall possible Dec. 24-27 and light snowfall forecast Dec. 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 0-4 C (32-39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-2 C (30-36 F).

• Kherson: Cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 22, 24, and 28. Light rainfall possible Dec. 23, 25, 26, and 27. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-9 C (36-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-4 C (22-39 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 22 and 24. Light rainfall possible Dec. 23, 25, and 26. Mix of rain and snow forecast Dec. 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-7 C (236-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-4 C (30-39 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Mixed light wintry precipitation Dec. 22-28, with the exception of Dec. 24 when it will be largely dry. Maximum daytime temperatures 1-5 C (34-41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-2 C (28-36 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Largely dry and cloudy Dec. 22-24. Mixed light wintry precipitation Dec. 25-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 1-3 C (34-37 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-1 C (32-34 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Partly cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 22-25. Light rainfall forecast Dec. 26-27. Partly cloudy and dry Dec. 28. Maximum daytime temperatures 3-4 C (37-39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-1 C (27-34 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Dec. 22, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued yellow fog warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) for Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Krai and parts of Crimea. Yellow freezing rain warnings have been issued for Bryansk Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, and Rostov Oblast and yellow icy road warnings for Kursk and Rostov oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and deicing operations at airports.

Context

The arrival of winter is likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas over the coming months, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains begin to abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring