Ukraine: Worsening weather conditions forecast across the country through at least Jan. 12 /update 16

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Following days of unseasonably mild weather in early Jan., which saw monthly temperature records broken in Kyiv and other parts of the country, worsening weather conditions are forecast across Ukraine through at least Jan. 12. A sharp drop in temperatures will be accompanied by strong winds and mixed wintry precipitation over the coming days. Precipitation will initially fall as rain across much of the country Jan. 5, with some sleet possible in eastern regions. A yellow weather warning for strong winds has also been issued across the country Jan. 5, with winds gusting up to 72 kph (45 mph) expected across much of Ukraine and up to 90 kph (56 mph) over the Carpathian mountains. Yellow rain and snow, ice, and blowing snow warnings are also in place over the Carpathians. Snow is expected in northern regions Jan. 6, with sleet and rain more likely further south. A mix of wintry precipitation is likely over western and central regions Jan. 7-9 and northern regions Jan. 9. Temperatures are expected to decrease gradually Jan. 5-6 before plummeting well below 0 C (32 F) across much of the country Jan. 7-9. Temperatures could reach as low as -18 C (0 F) at night in eastern regions. Temperatures are expected to begin to rise gradually from Jan. 10.

Precipitation and thawing snow in recent weeks has led to river levels rising in parts of Ukraine, particularly in far northern and northwestern river basins. Orange hydrological warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Upper Dnieper River in Chernihiv Oblast, yellow warnings for the Pripyat River in Volyn Oblast and the Tysa River in Zakarpattia Oblast, and green warnings for the Dniester River in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts as of Jan. 5. Orange and yellow avalanche warnings have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in Ivano-Frankivsk and Zakarpattia oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days. Hazardous travel conditions are likely over the coming days due to icy roads and reduced visibility caused by blowing snow.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Rain and sleet forecast Jan. 5-6. Cold but largely dry Jan. 7-11. Maximum daytime temperatures -12-3 C (10-37 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -18-3 C (0-37 F).

• Luhansk: Rain and sleet forecast Jan. 5-6. Cold but largely dry Jan. 7-11. Maximum daytime temperatures -11-7 C (12-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -15-0 C (5-32 F).

• Donetsk: Rain and sleet forecast Jan. 5-6. Cold but largely dry Jan. 7-11. Maximum daytime temperatures -10-7 C (14-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -12-0 C (10-32 F).

• Mariupol: Rain and sleet forecast Jan. 5-6. Cold but largely dry Jan. 7-11. Strong winds forecast Jan. 10-11. Maximum daytime temperatures -10-7 C (14-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -11-2 C (12-36 F).

• Kherson: Cloudy with light rain Jan. 5-6. Largely dry, cloudy, and cold Jan. 7-11. Maximum daytime temperatures -4-8 C (25-46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8-5 C (18-41 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Cloudy with light rain Jan. 5-6. Largely dry, cloudy, and cold Jan. 7-11. Maximum daytime temperatures -6-7 C (21-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -10-5 C (14-41 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Jan. 5-6. Cold but largely dry Jan. 7-11. Maximum daytime temperatures -13-2 C (9-36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -16--2 C (3-28 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Jan. 5-6. Cold but largely dry Jan. 7-11. Maximum daytime temperatures -13-2 C (9-36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -16-0 C (3-32 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Rain forecast Jan. 5-6, transitioning to snow late Jan. 6. Cold but largely dry Jan. 7-11. Maximum daytime temperatures -8-7 C (18-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -11-4 C (12-39 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Jan. 5, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange strong wind warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for Crimea and yellow strong wind warnings for Belgorod Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, and Voronezh Oblast. Yellow rain warnings have been issued for Crimea and yellow snow warnings for Kursk and Voronezh oblasts. Yellow freezing rain warnings have been issued for Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov oblasts and yellow ice warnings for Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and deicing operations at airports.

Context

The arrival of winter is likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas over the coming months, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains begin to abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring