South Africa: Protests likely nationwide through January due to ongoing energy crisis

Event

Service delivery protests are likely nationwide through January due to the ongoing energy crisis in South Africa. South Africa is currently experiencing its highest levels of load shedding, reaching stage 6 power cuts in early January. This is resulting in 10 to 12-hour daily electricity cuts, severely impacting businesses and consumers. Growing popular discontent could lead to spontaneous demonstrations, including road blockages, minor acts of arson, and clashes. Disruptive protests were reported in Phoenix, Kroonstad, Boksburg and Bushbuckridge early Jan. 16. Protest hotspots include informal settlements near major urban centers, along major highways, and near governmental buildings. Opposition parties have also signalled their intent to demonstrate over the issue.

Protests will likely continue through January. Prolonged load shedding could escalate tensions and increase the likelihood of violence. Should protests materialize, authorities will likely deploy police to manage the protest. Officials may seek to disperse or clear the demonstrators and the roadblocks that materialize, which could trigger clashes. The unrest is likely to result in ground travel and public transport disruptions. Disruptions to freight transport and business operations are likely.

Context

Service delivery protests are common in South Africa, particularly in informal settlements near or adjoining major urban centers. Protesters could likely block major and secondary routes with debris during busy rush hour periods (early morning or evening); however, blockages, particularly to national highways (such as the N1/2/3/4/5/6/7), are usually cleared shortly after the start of the event. Acts of arson are rare but not uncommon. Some protests can last for several hours; even if a protest ends, it can resume in the coming days if demands are not met. Violence is rare, with officials generally engaged in negotiations to end the unrest.

Advice

Avoid all protests. Heed the directives of the local authorities and monitor local media for updates as protests will likely occur on short notice. Consider alternative routes around the impact areas. Plan for disruptions to both general travel and the transport of freight. Reconfirm the status of routes in the hours preceding travel. Reconfirm all public transport services that operate in or through the affected areas.