Middle East: Adverse weather forecast across Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia through at least Feb. 3

Event

Adverse weather conditions are forecast across much of Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia through at least Feb. 3. A combination of weather hazards are forecast to impact parts of the affected countries, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, snowfall over higher elevations, strong winds, and dust storms. Disruptions to transport, businesses, and utilities are likely in areas impacted by severe weather.

As of Jan. 31, the Jordanian Meteorological Department has issued a warning for potential flooding in valleys and low-lying areas in northern and central parts of the country, as well as strong winds which may cause dust storms in desert areas, slippery roads in areas where rainfall occurs, and reduced visibility due to fog in mountainous areas. Snowfall is also possible over mountainous areas over the coming days.

The Kuwait Meteorological Department has issued a weather warning for thunderstorms, rainfall, and strong winds across the country Jan. 31-Feb. 1. Winds of more than 70 kph (43 mph) are possible, which will likely generate rough seas and dust storms in places.

The Lebanon Meteorological Service has warned that a storm system will bring heavy downpours, thunderstorms, strong winds, and snowfall in elevated areas through at least Feb. 3. Wind speeds could reach 90 kph (56 mph) in the north of the country Feb. 1. Rough seas are likely in coastal areas and fog will likely reduce visibility in mountainous areas. Snow accumulations and ice are expected to cause hazardous travel conditions in elevated areas.

Saudi Arabia's National Center of Meteorology has issued orange and yellow rainfall and thunderstorm warnings across western, northwestern, and some southwestern parts of the country as of Jan. 31. Orange and yellow dust storm warnings have been issued across central, eastern, and northern regions.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout affected areas.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at airports in the region due to reduced visibility caused by fog and dust. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations in coastal parts of the affected countries if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the region. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Jordan Meteorological Department
Kuwait Meteorological Department
Lebanon Meteorological Service
Saudi Arabia National Center of Meteorology