Ukraine: Wintry precipitation forecast across much of the country through at least Feb. 23 /update 22

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Wintry precipitation is forecast across much of Ukraine through at least Feb. 23. Largely dry conditions are forecast Feb. 16 before precipitation increases over the coming days. Sleet and rain are expected in most regions Feb. 17-19, and the precipitation is expected to become increasingly wintry Feb. 20-22, with drier conditions possible in the south. Temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees above freezing during the day across much of the country and around or a little below freezing at night. Slightly milder temperatures are expected in southern regions and colder conditions are expected in eastern regions, where it could reach as low as -13 C (9 F) at night Feb. 17-18. Hazardous travel conditions due to slippery roads and reduced visibility caused by blowing snow are likely.

Flooding remains a concern for some northern regions due to fluctuating river levels caused by ice formation. As of Feb. 16, orange hydrological warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Upper Dnieper River and Desna River basins in Chernihiv Oblast and yellow warnings for the Desna River basin in Kyiv Oblast. Yellow avalanche warnings have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in western Ivano-Frankivsk, eastern and northern Zakarpattia, southern Lviv, and far western Chernivtsi oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 16 and 19. Sleet and rain forecast Feb. 17-18 and wet snow forecast Feb. 20-22. Maximum daytime temperatures -3 to 4 C (27 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -12 to 1 C (10 to 34 F).

• Luhansk: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 16 and 19. Sleet and rain forecast Feb. 17-18 and wet snow forecast Feb. 20-22. Maximum daytime temperatures -5 to 3 C (23 to 37 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -13 to 2 C (9-36 F).

• Donetsk: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 16 and 19. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 17-18 and wet snow forecast Feb. 20-22. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to 4 C (25 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -9 to 2 C (16 to 36 F).

• Mariupol: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 16 and 19. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 17-18 and wet snow forecast Feb. 20-22. Maximum daytime temperatures -2 to 5 C (28 to 41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4 to 3 C (25 to 37 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 16-17 and Feb. 20-21. Rainfall forecast Feb. 18 and rain and sleet Feb. 19 and 22. Maximum daytime temperatures 3 to 8 C (37 to 46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4 to 5 C (25 to 41 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 16-17 and Feb. 20. Rainfall forecast Feb. 18 and rain and sleet Feb. 19. Wintry showers possible Feb. 21-22. Maximum daytime temperatures 2 to 8 C (36 to 46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -6 to 4 C (21 to 39 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light snow forecast Feb. 16. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 17 and 20. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 18-19 and snowfall forecast Feb. 21-22. Maximum daytime temperatures -5 to 2 C (23 to 36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -13 to -1 C (9 to 30 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light snow forecast Feb. 16-17 and 21-22 and mixed wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 18-20. Maximum daytime temperatures -5 to 2 C (23 to 36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -14 to -3 C (7 to 27 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Light snow forecast Feb. 16-17 and light rain Feb. 18-20. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 21-22. Maximum daytime temperatures -3 to 4 C (27 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -10 to 1 C (14 to 34 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Feb. 16, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued freezing rain warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) for Rostov and Voronezh oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Kray and parts of Crimea. Yellow fog warnings have been issued for Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts and yellow avalanche warnings for Krasnodar Kray. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and airport deicing operations.

Context

Winter is likely to have an impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing at times, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains abate. However, the severe winter typically experienced in the region will likely prompt severe logistical impediments and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which will likely lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations. As Spring begins to approach and temperatures ease, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive maneuvers. Offensives in early Spring could be hampered by flooding and boggy ground caused by precipitation and thawing snow and ice.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring