Ukraine: Cold temperatures with periods of wintry precipitation forecast across much of the country through at least Feb. 16 /update 21

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Cold temperatures with periods of wintry precipitation are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least Feb. 16. Nighttime temperatures as low as -14 C (7 F) and daytime maximums of no more than a few degrees above freezing are expected through Feb. 11, before temperatures pick up especially at night from Feb. 12. A mixture of sleet and snow is forecast in western and northern regions Feb. 11 and across the country Feb. 12, with rainfall possible in southern regions. Generally drier conditions are expected to prevail Feb. 13 before wintry precipitation returns across much of the country Feb. 14. Hazardous travel conditions due to slippery roads and reduced visibility caused by blowing snow are likely.

Flooding remains a concern for some northern regions and may also impact some western regions due to fluctuating river levels caused by ice formation. As of Feb. 9, orange hydrological warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Upper Dnieper River and Desna River basins in Chernihiv Oblast and green warnings for the Dniester River basin in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts. Yellow avalanche warnings have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in western Ivano-Frankivsk, eastern and northern Zakarpattia, and southern Lviv oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 9-11 and Feb. 13. Snow forecast Feb. 12 and Feb. 14-15. Maximum daytime temperatures -5 to 1 C (23 to 34 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -13 to -2 C (9 to 28 F).

• Luhansk: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 9-11. Snowfall forecast late Feb. 12-early Feb. 13 and Feb. 14-15. Maximum daytime temperatures -3 to 2 C (27 to 36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -13 to 0 C (9-32 F).

• Donetsk: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 9-11. Snowfall forecast late Feb. 12-early Feb. 13 and Feb. 14-15. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to 4 C (25 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -11 to 0 C (12 to 32 F).

• Mariupol: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 9-11 and Feb. 15. Snowfall forecast late Feb. 12-early Feb. 13 and Feb. 14. Maximum daytime temperatures -3 to 3 C (27 to 37 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8 to 1 C (18 to 34 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 9-13 and Feb. 15. Wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 14. Maximum daytime temperatures 0 to 6 C (32 to 43 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -10 to -1 C (14 to 30 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 9-13 and Feb. 15. Wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 14. Maximum daytime temperatures -2 to 4 C (28 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -12 to -1 C (10 to 30 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light snow forecast Feb. 9 and Feb. 11-12, as well as mixed wintry precipitation Feb. 14. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 10, 13, and 15. Maximum daytime temperatures -5 to 0 C (23 to 32 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8 to -3 C (18 to 27 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light snow forecast Feb. 9 and Feb. 15 and mixed wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 11-12 and Feb. 14. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 10 and 13. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to 1 C (25 to 34 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8 to -3 C (18 to 27 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 9-11 and Feb. 13. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 12 and Feb. 14-15. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to 1 C (25 to 34 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -11 to -4 C (12 to 25 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Feb. 9, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange avalanche warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for Krasnodar Kray. Yellow freezing rain warnings have been issued for Rostov Oblast and parts of Crimea, as well as yellow black ice warnings for Crimea. Yellow fog warnings have been issued for Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and airport deicing operations.

Context

Winter is likely to have an impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing at times, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains abate. However, the severe winter typically experienced in the region will likely prompt severe logistical impediments and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which will likely lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations. As Spring begins to approach and temperatures ease, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive maneuvers. Offensives in early Spring could be hampered by flooding and boggy ground caused by precipitation and thawing snow and ice.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring