Mozambique Channel: TC Freddy tracking westward across Mozambique Channel early Feb. 23 /update 9

Event

Tropical Cyclone Freddy is tracking westward across Mozambique Channel early Feb. 23. As of 05:00 CAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 93 km (58 miles) east of Europa Island.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a severe tropical storm as it tracks generally westward over the Mozambique Channel Feb. 23 before making landfall over the eastern coast of Mozambique in Inhambane Province early Feb. 24. After landfall, the storm is forecast to weaken rapidly as it continues to track generally westward across Inhambane and Gaza provinces before dissipating in far northwestern Gaza Province early Feb. 25. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Feb. 23, Madagascar's General Directorate of Meteorology has rescinded all watches and warnings in relation to the storm. Rainfall totals of around 6 cm (2.4 inches) are likely in some western regions; however, precipitation levels are likely to continue to diminish. Vessels are advised to avoid going out to sea between Manajary and Cape Sainte Marie and between Cape Sainte Marie and Morondava due to hazardous conditions.

Authorities in Madagascar preemptively evacuated almost 7,300 people in the Vatovavy Region ahead of the storm. As of Feb. 23, authorities have reported four fatalities associated with the passing of the storm. More than 16,000 people have been affected by the storm, including more than 8,000 displaced across Amoron'i Mania, Atsimo Atsinanana, Fitovinany, and Vatovay regions. At least 14 structures were destroyed, and another 2,276 structures damaged. Damage assessments are ongoing and could take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is known.

Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued a cyclone bulletin warning of daily rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) in parts of Inhambane and Sofala provinces, as well as winds gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) from Feb. 23. Daily rainfall totals of over 10 cm (4 inches) are possible in other parts of Ihambane and Sofala as well as parts of Manica provinces. Mozambique's Mozambican Council of Ministers has declared a red alert to allow authorities to respond to the impacts of the storm. Water discharges into the Zambezi River have been halted at the Cahora Bassa Dam due to the anticipated rise in river levels due to the heavy rainfall associated with Freddy.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions; it could also render some bridges and roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC)
Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM)