Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Freddy tracking west-southwestward across the Mozambique Channel Feb. 23 /update 10

Event

Moderate Tropical Storm Freddy is tracking west-southwestward across the Mozambique Channel Feb. 23. As of 14:00 CAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 89 km (55 miles) west-southwest of Europa Island.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a severe tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward and then westward over the Mozambique Channel Feb. 23-early Feb. 24 before making landfall over the eastern coast of Mozambique in Inhambane Province on the morning Feb. 24. After landfall, the storm is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks west-southwestward across north-central Inhambane Province Feb. 24-early Feb. 25 before dissipating as it moves over northeastern Gaza Province Feb. 25. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Feb. 23, Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued a red cyclone warning (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Gaza, Inhambane, Manica, and Sofala provinces. Daily rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) are expected in parts of the affected provinces, as well as winds gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) Feb. 23-25. Daily rainfall totals of over 10 cm (4 inches) are possible in other parts of Inhambane and Sofala provinces. Mozambique's Mozambican Council of Ministers has declared a red alert to allow authorities to respond to the impacts of the storm. Water discharges into the Zambezi River have been halted at the Cahora Bassa Dam due to the anticipated rise in river levels due to the heavy rainfall associated with Freddy.

Flooding has already been reported in Beria following heavy rainfall since Feb. 22 ahead of the approach of Freddy. A section of national highway 6 (EN6) has been cut off by flooding in Sofala's Dondo District and authorities have halted the transportation of goods from Beria port due to the road conditions. Mozambique Airlines (TM) have rescheduled several domestic flights Feb. 23-24 due to the storm system.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions; it could also render some bridges and roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC)
Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM)