Ukraine: Largely dry conditions with brief spells of wintry precipitation forecast across much of the country through at least March 9 /update 24

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Generally stable weather conditions are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least March 9. Largely dry conditions are forecast across the country March 2-5, with isolated light precipitation possible in places. A mixture of rainfall, sleet, and wet snow is expected in nothern and western regions March 5, western regions March 6, and across western, central, northern, and some eastern regions March 7. Temperatures are generally expected to remain around or a little below freezing at night and a few degrees above freezing during the day in most regions. The warmest temperatures are expected in southern regions, where it could reach up to 11 C (52 F) during the day March 7. The coldest temperatures are forecast in some western regions, where daytime temperatures of 1-3 C (34-37 F) are forecast March 5.

Flooding remains a concern for some northern regions due to precipitation and fluctuating river levels caused by ice formation. As of March 2, orange hydrological warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Upper Dnieper River and Desna River basins in Chernihiv Oblast. Yellow avalanche warnings have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in far western Chernivtsi, western Ivano-Frankivsk, and eastern and northern Zakarpattia oblasts, as well as green warnings in parts of southern Lviv Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 2-3 and March 6. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast March 4-5 and March 7. Rainfall forecast March 8. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-9 C (36-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -6-2 C (21-36 F).

• Luhansk: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 2-4 and March 6-8. Wet snow forecast March 5. Maximum daytime temperatures 1-7 C (34-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5-4 C (23-39 F).

• Donetsk: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 2-7. Rainfall forecast March 8. Maximum daytime temperatures 4-8 C (39-46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5-4 C (23-39 F).

• Mariupol: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 2-8. Maximum daytime temperatures 3-8 C (37-46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-6 C (30 -43 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 2-4, March 6, and March 8. Light rainfall forecast March 5 and March 7. Maximum daytime temperatures 6-12 C (43-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-5 C (28-41 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 2-4, March 6, and March 8. Light rainfall forecast March 5 and March 7. Maximum daytime temperatures 4-12 C (39-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-6 C (28-43 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Very light wintry precipitation forecast March 2-6 and light rainfall forecast March. 7-8. Maximum daytime temperatures 1-7 C (34-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4-1 C (25-34 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Very light wintry precipitation forecast March 2-6 and light rainfall forecast March 7-8. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-8 C (36-46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-1 C (27-34 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 2-4 and March 6-8. Light rainfall forecast March 5. Maximum daytime temperatures 4-15 C (39-59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-4 C (28-39 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of March 2, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange avalanche warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for Krasnodar Kray. Yellow freezing rain warnings have been issued for Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts and yellow fog warnings have been issued for Krasnodar Kray and parts of Crimea. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and airport deicing operations.

Context

As Ukraine moves from winter into spring, weather conditions are likely to continue to impact on military operations in the region. As temperatures gradually rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring