Ukraine: Mild and increasingly wet conditions forecast across much of the country through at least March 30 /update 27

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Mild temperatures are forecast to persist across much of Ukraine through at least March 30 and will initially be accompanied by generally dry conditions before spells of rainfall arrive across parts of the country. Little significant precipitation is forecast across Ukraine March 23-24 before rainfall accompanied by possible thunderstorms is expected in western and northern regions March 25 and will spread across the country March 26-27. Drier conditions are expected across most of Ukraine March 28-29; however, rainfall is forecast to linger in some eastern, northern, and western parts of the country. Temperatures are expected to stay above the average for the time of year across the country over the coming days, with daytime maximums of 12-19 C (54-66 F) forecast across Ukraine through March 25. A slight temperature drop to around 10-15 C (50-59 F) is forecast for March 26-28, before a sharper cooling is expected across much of the country from March 29.

Flooding remains a concern for some northern and northwestern regions due to fluctuating river levels caused by recent precipitation and snow melt. As of March 23, orange hydrological warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Desna River basin in Chernihiv Oblast and yellow warnings (level 2) for the Pripyat River basin in Volyn Oblast. Orange avalanche warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in southern and western Ivano-Frankivsk and eastern and northern Zakarpattia oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 23-25. Rainfall forecast March 26-29. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-16 C (48-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-7 C (36-45 F).

• Luhansk: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 23-26. Rainfall forecast March 27-29. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-18 C (48-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-8 C (32-46 F).

• Donetsk: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 23-26. Rainfall forecast March 27-29. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-17 C (48-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-8 C (32-46 F).

• Mariupol: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 23-26. Rainfall forecast March 27-29. Maximum daytime temperatures 8-13 C (46-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-9 C (41-48 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 23-26 and March 29. Rainfall forecast March 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 7-17 C (45-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-7 C (28-45 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 23-26 and March 29. Rainfall forecast March 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 8-17 C (46-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-7 C (32-45 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light rainfall forecast March 23, overnight March 26-27, and late March 28-29. Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 24-25. Maximum daytime temperatures 6-16 C (43-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-8 C (41-46 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 23-25. Light rainfall forecast March 26-27 and overnight March 28-29. Maximum daytime temperatures 8-17 C (46-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-8 C (37-46 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation March 23-25. Light rainfall forecast overnight March 26-27 and late March 28-29. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-19 C (52-66 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-10 C (43-50 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of March 23, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange avalanche warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) and yellow heavy rainfall warnings for Krasnodar Kray. Yellow fog warnings have been issued for Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Kray, and parts of Crimea. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Weather conditions are likely to continue to impact military operations in the region throughout spring. As temperatures rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability; however, they can also be detrimental to defensive forces if resupply routes become limited due to the adverse conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring