Ukraine: Precipitation forecast across much of the region through at least April 17, drier conditions likely April 18-20 /update 30

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Light to moderate rainfall is forecast across much of Ukraine through at least April 17. Drier conditions are likely April 18-20. Rainfall is forecast to start over central and eastern Ukraine April 13 before progressing over the whole of the country April 14, and persisting in the central and western parts April 15-17. Relatively mild temperatures are forecast across the country through April 20, with a slight increase in temperatures likely towards the end of the week.

Flooding remains a concern across much of northern Ukraine due to fluctuating river levels caused by recent precipitation and snow melt. The fairly persistent and widespread precipitation could also bring a further flood threat to other regions as river levels continue to rise. As of April 13, orange hydrological warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Desna River basin in Chernihiv Oblast. Yellow warnings (level 2) have been issued for the middle Dnieper River basin in Kyiv Oblast. Orange avalanche warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in southern and western Ivano-Frankivsk and northern and eastern Zakarpattia oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Cloudy with rain forecast through April 14. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 15-20. Maximum daytime temperatures of 12-17 C (54-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 3-8 C (37-46 F).

• Luhansk: Cloudy with rain forecast through April 14. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 15-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-15 C (52-59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-8 C (36-46 F).

• Donetsk: Cloudy with moderate rainfall forecast through April 14. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 15-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-14 C (52-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-8 C (41-46 F).

• Mariupol: Cloudy with rain forecast through April 14. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 15-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-12 C (50-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 8-10 C (46-50 F).

• Kherson: Cloudy with rain forecast through April 15. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 16-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 13-16 C (55-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-8 C (43-46 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Cloudy with rain forecast through April 14. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 15-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 13-16 C (55-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-8 C (43-46 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Cloudy with rain forecast through April 14. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 15-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-18 C (50-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-8 C (37-46 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Cloudy with rain forecast through April 14. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 15-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-18 C (50-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-8 C (37-46 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Cloudy with rain forecast through April 14. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 15-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-18 C (54-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 4-10 C (39-50 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of April 13, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for a combination of heavy downpours, thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for Krasnodar Kray and Rostov Oblast. Orange heavy rain warnings are also in place for Rostov Oblast. Yellow strong wind warnings have been issued for Krasnodar Kray and Rostov Oblast, and yellow thunderstorm warnings for Rostov Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Weather conditions are likely to continue to impact military operations in the region throughout spring. As temperatures rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability; however, they can also be detrimental to defensive forces if resupply routes become limited due to the adverse conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring