Ukraine: Precipitation forecast across much of the region through at least April 27 /update 31

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Showers are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least April 27. Light-to-moderate rainfall is expected over much of the country April 20-21, with thunderstorms possible in central and southern regions. Further showers are likely across Ukraine April 22-24 and moderate downpours are forecast in eastern and western regions April 25, with thunderstorms possible in the east. Further intermittent showers are likely across many parts of the country April 26. Temperatures are expected to rise slightly over the coming days, from around 10-14 C (50-57 F) April 20-21 to around 12-19 C (54-66 F) by April 25.

Flooding remains a concern across much of northern and central Ukraine due to fluctuating river levels caused by recent precipitation and snow melt. Many rivers across northern and central regions have spread over floodplains in recent days. Around 2,000 houses have been flooded across Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, and Volyn oblasts. More than 30 roads are impassable in Chernihiv and Kyiv oblasts and thousands of hectares of agricultural land have also been flooded. The relatively persistent and widespread precipitation forecast over the coming days could bring a further flood threat to other regions as river levels continue to rise.

As of April 20, the Ukraine Hydrometeorological Center has issued red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) hydrological warnings across the upper Dnieper Basin in Chernihiv Oblast and the middle Dnieper Basin in Cherkasy Oblast. Orange hydrological warnings are in place across the Desna Basin in Chernihiv and Kyiv oblasts, the middle Dnieper Basin in Kyiv Oblast, and the lower Dnieper Basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Poltava, and Zaporizhizhia oblasts. Orange avalanche warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in southern and western Ivano-Frankivsk and southeastern Zakarpattia oblasts. Yellow avalanche warnings are in place for parts of eastern and northern Zakarpattia Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Rainfall forecast April 20-21. Lighter showers April 22-24. Rain and thunderstorms April 25. Largely dry and cloudy April 26. Maximum daytime temperatures of 9-18 C (48-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 4-9 C (39-48 F).

• Luhansk: Rainfall forecast April 20-21. Lighter showers April 22-24. Rain and thunderstorms April 25. Largely dry and cloudy April 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-16 C (48-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 4-10 C (39-50 F).

• Donetsk: Rainfall forecast April 20-21. Lighter showers April 22-24. Rain and thunderstorms April 25. Largely dry and cloudy April 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-17 C (50-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-10 C (41-50 F).

• Mariupol: Rainfall forecast April 20-21. Lighter showers April 22-24. Rain and thunderstorms April 25. Largely dry and cloudy April 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-17 C (50-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 8-12 C (46-54 F).

• Kherson: Rainfall with thunderstorms forecast April 20-21. Light showers April 22-24. Largely dry and partly cloudy April 25-26. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-21 C (54-70 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 4-10 C (39-50 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Rainfall with thunderstorms forecast April 20-21. Light showers April 22-24. Largely dry and partly cloudy April 25-26. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-18 C (54-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-10 C (43-50 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Cloudy with rain forecast through April 20-25. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-17 C (50-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 4-8 C (39-46 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Cloudy with rain forecast April 20-25. Partly cloudy and dry April 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-18 C (52-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-8 C (41-46 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Cloudy with rain forecast through April 20-25. Cloudy with no significant precipitation April 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-19 C (57-66 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-10 C (43-50 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of April 20, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for a combination of heavy downpours, thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds for Krasnodar Kray and orange rain warnings for parts of Crimea. Yellow thunderstorm and hail warnings are in place for parts of Crimea and yellow rain warnings for Krasnodar Kray and Rostov Oblast. Yellow fog warnings have been issued for Crimea and Rostov Oblast, and yellow strong winds warnings for Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Kray. Yellow forest fire warnings are in place for Bryansk Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Weather conditions are likely to continue to impact military operations in the region throughout spring. As temperatures rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability; however, they can also be detrimental to defensive forces if resupply routes become limited due to the adverse conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring