This article first appeared in the February 2021 Airline Security Newsletter.
As vaccines against COVID-19 became available at the end of 2020, many in the travel industry expected governments and airlines to begin exempting travelers who had received a COVID-19 vaccine from COVID-19-related travel restrictions, such as travel bans, testing requirements, and mandatory quarantines. However, as of the end of February 2021, those hoping for easier travel for vaccinated travelers have largely been disappointed; most governments and airlines have continued to apply COVID-19-related restrictions and requirements to all travelers, regardless of vaccination status. The short-term future of travel restrictions for vaccinated travelers will likely depend on further research into whether vaccinated individuals can spread COVID-19.
Current Situation
As of the end of February 2021, most airlines and countries treat vaccinated passengers the same way they treat unvaccinated passengers. While a few governments have taken steps toward facilitating travel for vaccinated individuals, most have not exempted vaccinated travelers from testing requirements, entry restrictions, or mandatory quarantines.
Airlines have also continued to enforce mask requirements for vaccinated passengers. This cautious approach is largely due to a lack of data on whether vaccinated individuals can still transmit COVID- 19 to others.
Governments worldwide are continuing to treat travelers vaccinated against COVID-19 the same way they treat unvaccinated travelers. There have been a few exceptions to this trend, including Poland, Estonia, and Romania, which are exempting vaccinated travelers from quarantine and testing requirements.
Some other countries such as Iceland have announced similar plans in the coming months. Israel has also reached agreements with Cyprus and Greece to allow vaccinated travelers to travel without restrictions between their countries; however, these agreements have not yet taken effect due to Israel's current ban on commercial flights.
Airlines also continue to apply COVID-19-related rules and restrictions to vaccinated travelers. All major airlines still require face coverings for all passengers, regardless of vaccination status. Airlines also keep lounges closed or operating at reduced capacity. While some airlines have boasted of high vaccination rates for employees or operated flights with all-vaccinated crews, airline personnel have not had a higher priority for vaccines than the public in most countries.
Airlines and governments have taken a cautious approach to exempting vaccinated travelers from COVID-19-related requirements and restrictions due to the uncertainty regarding vaccinated individuals spreading COVID-19. While studies have conclusively shown that COVID-19 vaccines greatly reduce the likelihood of vaccinated individuals developing symptoms of COVID-19, there is little data on whether vaccinated individuals can be carriers for the disease or whether they can develop asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 and continue spreading the disease.
While relatively few proven cases of COVID-19 transmission onboard aircraft exist, air travel has been a major vector for spreading COVID-19 around the world throughout the pandemic. Countries are unlikely to take a more permissive approach towards vaccinated travelers until they have firm data showing that they are unlikely to spread the disease.
Likely Developments
The question of vaccinated travelers still spreading COVID-19 will be a key factor in determining the future of COVID-19-related restrictions and requirements for such travelers. Initial research on the topic has been promising but has not drawn any firm conclusions.
Airlines and others in the travel industry have encouraged governments to adopt "health passports" and have suggested requiring proof of vaccination for all airline passengers; however, no major airlines have implemented any such requirements yet. Until governments have more confidence regarding the risk of vaccinated individuals spreading COVID-19, or until countries vaccinate enough residents to reach herd immunity, most will likely continue taking a cautious approach towards vaccinated travelers.
The airline industry has suggested several initiatives to facilitate travel for vaccinated passengers, but none have yet gained widespread acceptance. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the main global trade group for airlines, has touted a "health passport," an app that will store passenger's test and vaccine records, in conjunction with approximately 20 airlines. While IATA and its partner airlines have touted the app as a way to facilitate seamless travel for passengers, it will not significantly change travel for vaccinated individuals unless governments choose to exempt such travelers from COVID-19-related quarantines and travel restrictions.
Some airlines, such as Australian flag carrier Qantas (OF), have suggested requiring proof of vaccination for all passengers, but no major airlines have implemented such a requirement as of late February 2021. Airlines will likely only take such a step if governments begin requiring proof of vaccination for all travelers entering the country.
The most important factor in whether vaccinated individuals could travel without restriction will be more conclusive research into how much such people can spread COVID-19. There will always be some risk of vaccinated individuals spreading the disease; even the best vaccines are only 95-percent effective, meaning there is a five percent chance a vaccinated individual can become infected with and transmit the COVID-19 virus. However, authorities have yet to determine the scale of the threat of transmission from vaccinated individuals.
If research shows that people vaccinated against COVID-19 cannot act as asymptomatic carriers for the COVID-19 virus, some governments will likely exempt vaccinated travelers from at least some COVID-19-related restrictions. Governments may also begin to lift restrictions for vaccinated travelers if enough residents are vaccinated to greatly reduce the risk of a major COVID-19 outbreak.
The policies adopted by Israel will likely be a bellwether for the future of COVID-19-related travel restrictions, as the country has made the most progress in vaccinating its citizens against COVID-19. As of late February 2021, Israel has adopted even more restrictive policies towards air travel since it started its vaccination campaign due to the threat of the more contagious strains of COVID-19 currently spreading worldwide. However, Israel has also begun to negotiate agreements to reduce travel restrictions for vaccinated individuals after resuming international flights.
The country has reached agreements with Greece and Cyprus to allow restriction-free travel for vaccinated individuals and will likely reach more such agreements in the coming weeks. Other governments will likely emulate such bilateral agreements elsewhere in the world, facilitating travel for vaccinated individuals on some routes. However, these agreements will also likely add another layer to the already-confusing patchwork of COVID-19-related travel restrictions around the world.
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