Asia Outlook: Week of August 28, 2023

ASIA SUMMARY

August 28, 2023

Bangladesh, Burma, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand

WEEK-END

• SOUTH KOREA (public order). In Seoul on Saturday Aug. 26, demonstrators (once again) demanded measures to avert "imminent catastrophe" following the release of radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
• PHILIPPINES (bad weather). On Saturday Aug. 26, super typhoon Saola skimmed the northeast of the island of Luzon before continuing southwards, with gusts up to 180 km/h. No casualties or major damage were reported.
• INDONESIA (health). On Friday Aug. 25, a fire that started 3 days earlier in a landfill in Sarimukti (West Java, east of Jakarta) turned into an emergency, with thick smoke suffocating the local population.
• TAIWAN (defense). On Saturday Aug. 26, in the last 24 hours, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense reported the presence of some twenty Chinese air force aircraft in the island's air defense zone.
• JAPAN (natural hazard). On Friday Aug. 25, an offshore earthquake (magnitude 5.8) occurred 115 km east of Yamada. Tremors were felt in the prefectures of Iwate, eastern Aomori, eastern Akita, and northern Miyagi.
• BURMA (civil war). Fighting between junta forces and the armed resistance has recently taken place in the Sagaing, Magwe and Bago regions and in the Mon State.
• JAPAN (defense). On Friday Aug. 25, Japanese fighter jets took off in response to the presence of Chinese bombers flying over the strait between the Okinawa and Miyako islands, linking the East China Sea to the Pacific Ocean.

TO BE MONITORED (in the next few days)

• BANGLADESH / INDONESIA (health). With an air quality index of 154 and 152 ("unhealthy") respectively on Monday Aug. 28, Jakarta and Dhaka were the 2nd and 3rd most polluted cities (PM 2.5) in the world, after Dubai.
• SOUTH KOREA (defense). Begun on South Korean soil on Aug. 21, the annual South Korea/United States Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) joint military maneuvers run until Thursday Aug. 31.
• JAPAN / CHINA (inter-state tensions). On Monday Aug. 28, the Japanese government spokesman described as "extremely regrettable" the "harassing phone calls from China" concerning the discharge of treated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean, which began on Thursday Aug. 24.
• PAKISTAN (public order). On Saturday, Sept. 2, in a febrile political context, the Jamaat-e-Islami (politico-religious opposition party) will call a nationwide strike against rising electricity tariffs.
• INDONESIA (transport; security). Jakarta will host the 43rd ASEAN Summit and related events from Sept. 2 to 7. Traffic on various routes near the Jakarta Convention Centre will be affected by these events.
• THAILAND (public order). A priori, heightened security should be maintained in Bangkok until early September (postelections context and new Prime Minister just nominated).
• HONG KONG (bad weather). According to projections, super typhoon Saola could hit HK on Wednesday Aug. 30. Saola will then be less than 800 km from the city. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected on Aug. 28-29.

OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS

• Natural hazards: individuals present in East Asia (CHINA, HK), Southeast Asia (PHILIPPINES) and South Asia (INDIA, BANGLADESH) will be alert to various local weather conditions (typhoon, rainfall, flooding), natural hazards (cf. earthquakes) that may impact safety and travel and will comply with the instructions of local authorities.
• Public order: as public gatherings may impact travel or even degenerate into confrontations, people present in INDIA, CHINA, THAILAND, PAKISTAN, SOUTH KOREA (following the release of water from Fukushima into the Pacific) or INDONESIA will stay away from these various types of demonstrations/events.
• With the security threat (terrorism, civil war, kidnapping) remaining at its highest, and Western governments suggesting that their citizens refrain from traveling to these countries except for imperative reasons, travel to AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, BURMA, NORTH KOREA and PAPUA-NG remains inadvisable.
• Health: as in Jakarta (INDONESIA) and Dhaka (BANGLADESH), air pollution levels will continue to be monitored over the next few days in various capitals and other major industrialized urban centers in the region.
• Finally, in view of the delicate relations between Beijing and Taipei, in the South China Sea (Beijing / Manila) or the defiance of the North Korean regime, we can't rule out the occurrence of events in the Indo-Pacific over the next few days that could have consequences for regional stability and the relevance of travel.