ASIA SUMMARY
August 7, 2023
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burma, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines.
WEEK-END
- BURMA (civil war). At the end of last week, some thirty junta soldiers perished in clashes with armed resistance in the Bago, Mandalay and Sagaing regions, and in the Shan and Kayah States.
- PAKISTAN (politics; public order). Saturday, August 5 in Lahore, police arrested former Prime Minister Imran Khan after a court sentenced him to 3 years in prison, which could prevent him from standing in the November elections.
- CHINA (bad weather). Sunday, August 6, in the Jilin province, torrential rains killed some fifteen people, adding to the death toll from bad weather over the past 10 days (150 killed nationwide in July).
- INDIA (politics; public order). Saturday, August 5, in the Manipur State, the authorities and the population deplored another day of violence between two rival ethnic groups and violence targeting security personnel.
- CHINA (natural hazard). Sunday, August 6, in the Shandong province (near Dezhou city), a magnitude 5.4 earthquake (the strongest in the region for 10 years) caused dozens of injuries and significant material damage.
- PHILIPPINES (interstate tensions). Saturday, August 5, in the South China sea (near the Second Thomas Shoal), a new maritime incident pitted a Chinese coastguard vessel against a Philippine supply ship.
- AFGHANISTAN (natural hazard). Saturday, August 5, in the Badakhshan province (50 km southwest of Jurm), an earthquake of magnitude 5.8 occurred. The earthquake is not thought to have caused any casualties.
TO BE MONITORED (in the next few days)
- SOUTH KOREA (bad weather). While typhoon Khanun is expected to hit on Thursday, August 10 near Busan after making landfall on the east coast, the authorities are urging the population at risk to prepare themselves accordingly.
- SOUTH KOREA (security). After a series of stabbings and vehicle attacks in Seoul (Aug. 3; July 21) and Daejeon (Aug. 4), the authorities have stepped up security in public places nationwide until mid-August.
- BANGLADESH (health). The country is currently grappling with a dengue epidemic of record severity. Hospitals, particularly in Dhaka, are overwhelmed and struggling to cope with the wave of patients requiring help and treatment.
- INDIA (politics; public order). Later this month, Prime Minister N. Modi is expected to face a motion of no confidence in Parliament (tabled by the opposition) in connection with the government's handling of the violence in Manipur. In addition, heightened security measures will be in force at least until Aug. 8 in Haryana State (intercommunal violence).
- JAPAN (bad weather). Typhoon Khanun is approaching the archipelago (passing close to Kagoshima prefecture on August 8; Koshikijima islands on August 9) and should make landfall (Nagasaki prefecture) on August 9.
- MALAYSIA (politics). On Saturday, August 12, elections will be held in six states (Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Terengganu, Kelantan). A poll that will indicate, among other things, the level of popular support for Prime Minister A. Ibrahim's unity government formed after the controversial general elections of Nov. 2022.
- INDONESIA (public order). On Thursday, August 10, in Jakarta (near the State Palace and the Constitutional Court) and Makassar, the Labor alliance (AASB) will be calling on its members and supporters to demonstrate and rally.
OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS
- Natural hazards: individuals in East Asia (JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, CHINA), Southeast Asia (VIETNAM) and South Asia (AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN) will be paying close attention over the next few days to regional bad weather conditions (typhoons; rainfall; flooding; landslides; heatwaves) and local natural hazards (e.g. aftershocks) that may affect health, safety, security and travel, and will comply with the instructions of local authorities.
- Public order: as public gatherings over the next few days could affect travel or even degenerate into confrontations (with the forces of law and order), those present in INDIA, INDONESIA, MALAYSIA, PAKISTAN, SOUTH KOREA or CAMBODIA (among other countries concerned) will remain on the sidelines of these demonstrations and other rallies.
- As the security threat (terrorism, civil war, kidnapping) remains at its highest and Western governments are suggesting to their citizens that they should not travel to these countries unless there is a compelling reason to do so, travel to AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, BURMA, NORTH KOREA and PAPUA-NEW-G. remains inadvisable.
- Health: the dengue fever epidemic in BANGLADESH (Dhaka in particular) must draw the attention/vigilance of travelers.
- Finally, in view of the tense relations between CHINA and TAIWAN, in the South China Sea (CHINA / PHILIPPINES) and the unpredictability / defiance of the North Korean regime, we can't rule out the occurrence of events in the Indo-Pacific over the next few days that could have consequences for regional stability and the running / timeliness of travel.
