Asia Outlook: Week of July 15, 2024

ASIA SUMMARY

July 15, 2024

CHINA / HONG KONG / INDIA / JAPAN / KYRGYZSTAN / NEPAL / NEW ZEALAND / PAKISTAN / TAIWAN / THAILAND / VIETNAM

WEEKEND (July 13-14)

• NEPAL (floods). On Friday, July 12, in the Chitwan district, a landslide swept 2 buses carrying 65 people into a river swollen by heavy rains. Landslides and flooding caused by torrential monsoon rains have claimed over a hundred lives in Nepal since mid-June.
• TAIWAN (defense). On Saturday, July 13, Taipei announced that it was monitoring "waves" of missile tests in Inner Mongolia (China), while placing its air defense on high alert.
• VIETNAM (severe weather). On Saturday, July 13, landslides triggered by torrential rains in the northern mountains killed at least 12 people. Flash flood and landslide warnings have since been in force in the Ha Giang, Lao Cai, Tuyen Quang and Yen Bai Provinces.
• PAKISTAN (public order). In the wake of the incidents on July 11 between supporters of the Baloch Yakjehti Committee and security forces near Quetta's Red Zone, security will continue to be stepped up locally over the next few days.
• JAPAN (earthquake). On Saturday, July 13, a magnitude 5.3 earthquake occurred off the southeast coast of Okinawa (epicenter 127 km from Itoman). Aftershocks were felt in the southern Ryukyu Islands. No casualties reported.
• KYRGYZSTAN (floods). On Sunday, July 14, the authorities ordered evacuations in the Osh region following heavy rain and landslides, while a state of emergency was declared.

TO BE MONITORED (in the next few days)

• CHINA (severe weather). On Monday, July 15, heavy rain and high temperatures warnings maintained in various regions: torrential rains expected in Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia provinces.
• CHINA (security). On Monday, July 15, the Communist Party opened its 3rd Plenum (a 4-day meeting of several hundred full and alternate members of the Central Committee), prompting heightened security measures in the capital Beijing.
• HONG KONG (security). On Monday, July 15, police have launched a 3-day air and ground anti-burglary operation in the The Peak and Mid-Levels upmarket residential districts, as residents head off on their summer vacations.
• INDIA (festival). The annual Hindu Rath Yatra festival takes place at the Jagannath temple (Puri, Odisha) until July 19. Half a million devotees are expected to attend, especially for the chariot procession (July 15).
• PAKISTAN (protest). On Monday, July 15, in Islamabad, thousands of supporters of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) stage a sit-in protest (duration undetermined) at the Faizabad interchange, in solidarity with Palestine.
• TAIWAN (protest). On Monday, July 15, in Taipei, pro-democracy activists demonstrate in front of the Legislative Yuan against the organic law of the National Communications Commission.
• INDIA (protest). On Monday, July 15, in Bengaluru, the BJP protests against the Congress party in front of the State Legislative Assembly, for this first "monsoon session".
• NEW ZEALAND (severe weather). On July 15 and 16, heavy rain and strong winds are expected over the north and extreme south: orange alert for heavy rain (Coromandel peninsula, Bay of Plenty) ; yellow alert strong wind: Northland.
• THAILAND (protest). On Tuesday, July 16, in Bangkok, the Thalugaz group organizes a protest march in the afternoon, between the American embassy and the United Nations building, to protest the death of an activist in prison.

OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS

• Natural hazards / weather conditions: individuals in South-East Asia, South Asia (INDIA, PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, NEPAL), East Asia (CHINA, JAPAN, S. KOREA), Oceania (NEW ZEALAND) and Central Asia (KYRGYZSTAN) will be alert to local severe weather conditions (rainfall, flooding, heatwave), natural hazards (e.g. landslides; volcanic eruption) that may impact safety and travel, and will willingly comply with the instructions of local authorities.
• Public order: as popular gatherings could impact travel or even degenerate into clashes, individuals present in INDIA, BANGLADESH, BURMA (civil war), PAKISTAN (major political tensions), AFGHANISTAN, INDONESIA, THAILAND, S. KOREA, TAIWAN or AUSTRALIA will remain on the sidelines of any such demonstrations as a precautionary measure.
• As the security situation (terrorism, civil war, kidnapping) remains tenuous, and Western governments suggest that their citizens refrain from traveling to these countries unless there is a compelling reason to do so, travel to AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, BURMA and PAPUA-NG remains inadvisable. The same currently applies (for different reasons) to NEW CALEDONIA.
• Finally, in view of the particularly tense relations between Beijing and Taipei, the persistent tensions in the South China Sea (Beijing/Manila) and the usual defiance / provocation of North Korea, we cannot rule out the occurrence of events in the Asia-Pacific region over the next few days that could have consequences for regional stability and the smooth running/relevance of travel.

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