ASIA SUMMARY
June 3, 2024
CHINA / HONG KONG / INDIA / JAPAN / SOUTH KOREA / MALAYSIA / MALDIVES / PHILIPPINES / SRI LANKA / TAIWAN
WEEKEND (June 1-2)
- SINGAPORE (South China Sea dispute). On Friday, May 31, during the inaugural speech of the Shangri-La Dialogue 2024, the Philippine president declared (to Beijing): ''the death of a Philippine citizen at the hands of another country bordering the South China Sea would be “very close” to an act of war'' (casus belli).
- CHINA (earthquake). On Saturday, June 1st, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake occurred in the north of the Tibet Autonomous Region (670 km northwest of Lhasa). No major damage or casualties have been reported to date.
- TAIWAN (earthquake). On Saturday, June 1st, an earthquake (magnitude 5.2 on the Richter scale) occurred in Hualien county (epicenter 11 km north-northwest of Hualien). No major damage or casualties have been reported to date.
- INDIA (elections). Saturday, June 1st, the last day of national parliamentary polling took place in the following states: Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Chandigarh.
- MALDIVES (entry conditions). On Sunday, June 2, in solidarity with the Palestinian people, the Maldivian president announced a ban on Israeli passport holders entering the country, without specifying a date.
SRI LANKA (severe weather). On Sunday, June 2, flash floods, mudslides and falling trees caused by a violent monsoon left some fifteen people dead, particularly near Colombo.
TO BE MONITORED (in the next few days)
- HONG KONG (crime). On Monday, June 3, the authorities warned the public (and visitors) of the risks associated with the current unusually high circulation of counterfeit Hong Kong dollar bills in the former British colony.
- JAPAN (earthquake). On Monday, June 3, an earthquake (magnitude 5.9) struck off the Noto peninsula, a central region already hit by a deadly earthquake (230 deaths) in January. No tsunami warnings or casualties were reported.
- SOUTH KOREA (regional tensions). On Monday, June 3, Seoul suspended the 2018 inter-Korean peace pact until mutual trust is restored, in response to North Korea's mass dispatch of garbage-laden balloons.
- INDIA (public order; elections). On Tuesday, June 4, the results of the 7-phase general election in the “world's largest democracy” will be announced. Polls predict a new success for Prime Minister N. Modi's BJP.
- HONG KONG (commemoration). On Tuesday, June 4, authorities and police forces will be mobilized for the commemoration - now banned in HK - of the events that took place in Beijing's Tiananmen Square in 1989 (repression).
- TAIWAN (commemoration). Late on Tuesday, June 4, a vigil at Taipei's Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall will commemorate the anniversary of the 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.
- MALAYSIA (running water). From June 5 to 7, due to maintenance work at a water treatment plant, the supply of running water will be partially affected in certain districts of Kuala Lumpur and various locations in the state of Selangor (Gombak, Hulu Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, Kuala Selangor, Klang, Petaling and Shah Alam).
- INDIA (shutdown). On Thursday, June 6, the Sikh organization Dal Khalsa calls for a one-day strike in Amritsar (Punjab state) to commemorate the 40th anniversary of Operation Bluestar against militants holed up in the sacred Golden Temple.
OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS
- Natural hazards/weather conditions: Individuals in Southeast Asia, South Asia, East Asia and the South Pacific will be alert to local severe weather conditions (e.g. heatwave, tropical storm, rainfall, flooding), natural hazards (e.g. landslides; volcanic eruption; earthquake) that may affect safety and travel and will willingly comply with the instructions of local authorities.
- Public order: as popular gatherings may affect travel or even degenerate into clashes, individuals present in INDIA (post-elections), BURMA (civil war), PAKISTAN (major political tensions), AFGHANISTAN, HONG KONG, THAILAND, SRI LANKA and TAIWAN will remain on the sidelines of any such demonstrations as a precautionary measure.
- As the security situation (terrorism, civil war, kidnapping) remains tenuous, and Western governments suggest that their citizens refrain from traveling to these countries unless there is a compelling reason to do so, travel to AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, BURMA and PAPUA-NG remains inadvisable. The same currently applies (for different reasons) to NEW CALEDONIA.
- Finally, in view of the particularly tense relations between Beijing and Taipei, the persistent tensions in the South China Sea (Beijing/Manila) and the usual defiance / provocation of North Korea, we cannot rule out the occurrence of events in the Asia-Pacific region over the next few days that could have consequences for regional stability and the smooth running/relevance of travel.
Author(s)
