Asia Outlook: Week of October 23, 2023

ASIA SUMMARY

October 23, 2023

Australia, Bangladesh, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Vanuatu

WEEKEND

• PAKISTAN (public order; politics). On Saturday, Oct. 21, former Prime Minister N. Sharif returned to the country after 4 years of voluntary exile in London. The following day, he hosted a political rally in his stronghold of Lahore (Punjab).
• TAIWAN (defense). On Saturday, Oct. 21, the Taiwanese army began a week of drills in the center of the island.
• MALAYSIA (public order). On Sunday, Oct. 22, in Kuala Lumpur's Merdeka Square, some 10,000 people marched in solidarity with the Palestinian people - the third such gathering in 10 days.
• SOUTH KOREA((defense). On Sunday, Oct. 22, South Korea, the United States and Japan conducted their 1st joint air exercise near the Korean peninsula (security cooperation against North Korea). 
• PHILIPPINES (defense). On Sunday, Oct. 22, another maritime incident (collision; no casualties) between Chinese and Philippine vessels occurred in the South China Sea, near the Spratly archipelago (Second Thomas Shoal).
• PAKISTAN (public order) On Sunday, Oct. 22, Islamabad has decided to restrict the Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossing to people with valid passports and visas from November 1.
• NEPAL (earthquake). On Sunday, Oct. 22, a magnitude 5.2 earthquake occurred in Gandaki province (epicenter 60 km northwest of Kathmandu). No casualties or major material damage were reported.

TO BE MONITORED (in the next few days)

• VANUATU (cyclone). On Monday, Oct. 23, tropical cyclone Lola (category 3) was heading for the northeast of Vanuatu. It is expected to make landfall over the islands of Maewo and Ambae late on Tuesday, Oct. 24.
• AUSTRALIA (wild fires). Monday, Oct. 23, firefighters are attempting to contain several bushfires in south-east Queensland, where several dozen fires fanned by heat and wind are underway. Warnings and evacuation notices have been issued in the Darling Downs region.
• SOUTH KOREA (public order). Monday, Oct. 23, the government announced the deployment of 1,260 extra officers on the narrow streets of Seoul to avoid overcrowding during Halloween week and a tragedy like the one in Itaewon a year earlier (159 victims).
• SRI LANKA (bad weather). Monday, Oct. 23, low-lying flood warnings have been issued for the following regions: Kotapola, Pitabeddara, Akuressa, Pasgoda, Malimbada, Thihagoda, Matara and Devinuwar.
• CHINA (earthquake). Monday, Oct. 23, an earthquake (magnitude 5) occurred in the southwest of Qinghai province (260 km north-northwest of Nagqu). So far, no casualties or significant material damage have been reported.
• INDIA (celebrations; public order). Heightened security measures will be in place in some parts of the country for the annual Hindu religious celebrations of Durga Puja stretching at least until Tuesday, Oct. 24. The largest gatherings associated with these popular celebrations will take place near the major Hindu temples.
• BANGLADESH (public order). The annual Hindu religious celebrations of Durga Puja and Lakshmi Puja are underway; Tuesday, Oct. 24 will therefore be a public holiday, with administrations and many businesses remaining closed.

OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS

• Natural hazards: individuals present in East Asia (CHINA), Southeast Asia, South Asia (SRI LANKA, NEPAL) and Oceania (AUSTRALIA, VANUATU) will be attentive to local bad weather (cf. rain; floods; high winds), natural hazards (cf. earthquake, landslides) that may impact safety and travel, and will comply with the instructions of local authorities.
• Public order: as public gatherings may impact travel or even degenerate into clashes, people present in INDIA, CHINA, the PHILIPPINES, PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN, AUSTRALIA and MALAYSIA will stay away from these various types of events as a precaution.
• With the security threat (terrorism, civil war, kidnapping) remaining at its highest, and Western governments suggesting that their citizens refrain from traveling to these countries except for imperative reasons, travel to AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, BURMA, NORTH KOREA and PAPUA-NG remains inadvisable.
• In view of the tense relations between Beijing and Taipei, the tensions in the South China Sea (Beijing/Manila) and the regular defiance of North Korea, we cannot rule out the occurrence of events in the Asia-Pacific region over the next few days that could have consequences for regional stability and the smooth running/relevance of travel.