Asia Outlook: Week of September 18, 2023

ASIA SUMMARY

September 18, 2023

Afghanistan, Australia, Burma, China, India, North Korea, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Taiwan

WEEKEND

• NORTH KOREA (diplomacy). On Sunday, Sept. 17, at the end of a (rare) 5-day visit to Russia, during which he met the Russian president, assured himself of the solidity of Pyongyang-Moscow relations and future reciprocal cooperation (supply of munitions in exchange for the transfer of cutting-edge technology), Kim Jong-un left by train for the DPRK.
• MALAYSIA (public order). On Saturday, Sept. 16, several hundred opposition militants supporting the Nasional coalition (PN) demonstrated in the streets of the capital Kuala Lumpur against a recent controversial court ruling.
• BURMA (civil war). In recent days, fighting between the junta (in the Naypyitaw, Sagaing, Magwe, Mandalay, Bago and Tanintharyi regions) and the combined forces of armed ethnic groups (GEA) and pro-democracy militias (People's Defence Forces; PDF) has claimed dozens of army casualties.
• AFGHANISTAN (security). On Saturday, Sept. 16, the Taliban confirmed that an American national working for a Western NGO had been kidnapped (along with 17 colleagues) in Ghor province for "christian proselytizing".
• INDIA (public order). On Friday, Sept. 15, inter-community tensions flared up in the Nuh district (Haryana state; 90 km south of New Delhi) and in certain surrounding areas. As a precaution, the authorities deployed security forces, restricted public gatherings and suspended access to the Internet and social networks.
• AUSTRALIA (demonstration). On Sunday, Sept. 17, in several major urban centers, tens of thousands of Australians mobilized in support of the "Walk for Yes", ahead of the October referendum in favor of recognizing the rights of indigenous peoples.

TO BE MONITORED (in the next few days)

• AUSTRALIA (heatwave). Meteorological services are forecasting a sharp rise in temperatures from Monday, Sept. 18 (to Sept. 20), particularly in the states of South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales.
• JAPAN (heatwave). On Monday, Sept. 18, meteorological services issued heatwave warnings (Gunma prefecture; Okinawa). The heatwave is expected to affect a large part of the archipelago until at least October 2.
• PAKISTAN (public order). In Baluchistan province, some political parties, civil society and the business community may extend their mobilization over the next few days/weeks to press the government to reauthorize trade with Iran.
• INDONESIA ((natural risk). On Sunday, Sept. 17, a magnitude 5 offshore earthquake off the north coast of West Papua Province (epicenter 90 km northeast of Fef) reportedly caused neither casualties nor major material damage.
• TAIWAN (defense). On Monday, Sept. 18, in the midst of an upsurge in Chinese air / naval incursions into the airspace and vicinity of the "rebel island" (103 Chinese aircraft in Taiwanese skies from Sept. 17 to 18), Taiwan's Defense Minister urged Beijing to cease its "destructive unilateral actions", raising tensions.
• SOUTH KOREA (diplomacy). President Yoon Suk Yeol takes off for New York on Monday, Sept. 18, where he will address the annual United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday, Sept. 20, in a bid to convince North Korea to opt for dialogue (with Seoul and Washington in particular) rather than provocation.
• CHINA (defense). On Sunday, Sept. 17, the Chinese navy began naval military maneuvers in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Strait, off the coast of the city of Dalian. These exercises could last until Sept. 23.

OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS

• Natural hazards: individuals present in East Asia (JAPAN), Southeast Asia (INDONESIA), South Asia and Oceania AUSTRALIA; PNG) will be alert to various local weather conditions (cf. heatwave), natural hazards (cf. earthquake) that may impact safety and travel, and will comply with the instructions of local authorities.
• Public order: as public gatherings may impact travel or even degenerate into clashes, people present in INDIA, CHINA, SRI LANKA, PAKISTAN, SOUTH KOREA, MALDIVES, MALAYSIA or INDONESIA will stay away from these various types of events.
• With the security threat (terrorism, civil war, kidnapping) remaining at its highest, and Western governments suggesting to their citizens that they should not travel to these countries except for imperative reasons, travel to AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, BURMA, NORTH KOREA and PAPUA-NG remains inadvisable.
• Finally, in view of the tense relations between Beijing and Taipei, the tensions in the South China Sea (Beijing / Manila) and the permanent defiance of North Korea, we cannot rule out the occurrence of events in the Asia-Pacific region over the next few days that could have consequences for regional stability and the smooth running/relevance of travel.