ASIA SUMMARY
September 25, 2023
China, Fiji, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Maldives, New Zealand, Pakistan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan
WEEK-END
- CHINA (international sporting event). The 19th Asian Games kicked off in Hangzhou on Saturday, Sept. 23. This sporting competition will run until Sunday, Oct. 8, with the participation of 12,000 athletes from 45 Asian countries.
- TAIWAN (inter-state tensions). On Saturday, Sept. 23, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense announced Chinese military maneuvers (air force, navy) in Dacheng Bay (Fujian province), facing Taiwan.
- INDIA (public order). On Saturday, Sept. 23., the Indian National Congress party (INC; opposition) organized various events in Jaipur (Rajasthan). Around 100,000 people reportedly took part.
- SOUTH KOREA (public order). On Saturday, Sept. 23., activists from the Candlelight Action group gathered in Seoul (near City Hall subway station) to demand the resignation of President Yoon Suk Yeol.
- PAKISTAN (public order). On Sunday, Sept. 24, activists of the Jamaat-i-Islami (politico-religious party) staged a demonstration and sit-in in Hyderabad against inflation, rising fuel prices, commodity prices and electricity, gas and water tariffs.
TO BE MONITORED (in the next few days)
- SRI LANKA (public order). On Monday, Sept. 25, teachers demonstrate in Colombo in front of the University Grants Commission (Ward Place) against the government's education and taxation policies.
- INDONESIA (public order). On Monday, Sept. 25., in Jakarta, farmers and workers demonstrate in front of the Constitutional Court and the Palace of State against the Omnibus law and to demand better protection for farmers.
- SOUTH KOREA (defense). On Monday, Sept. 25., South Korea and the United States kicked off a combined 3-day naval exercise in the East Sea to strengthen their preparedness against North Korean military threats.
- SINGAPORE (evacuation). On Tuesday, Sept. 26, several hundred people in various neighborhoods of Upper Bukit Timah will evacuate the area while deminers neutralize a World War 2 bomb.
- INDIA (public order). On Tuesday, Sept. 26., the city of Bangalore (Bengaluru) is set to slow down following the call for a general strike (bandh) by various corporations (transport, hotels, restaurants, education, cinema, etc.).
- NEW-ZEALAND (bad weather). Heavy rain and strong winds are expected over the extreme north of the South Island and the extreme north and south of the North Island until at least Tuesday, Sept. 26.
- FIJI (bad weather). The authorities have issued a national alert for heavy rainfall until at least Tuesday, Sept. 26. Flood warnings are in force for the Wainibuka, Wainimala and Rewa rivers.
- TAIWAN (heatwave). Authorities are forecasting scorching temperatures in the north and south until at least Thursday, Sept. 28. An orange alert is in force for New Taipei and Taoyuan (temperatures up to 36°Celsius).
- MALDIVES ((public holiday; election). The archipelago is preparing for the 2nd round of presidential elections on Saturday, Sept. 30. Unrelated to the upcoming election, Thursday, Sept. 28 has been declared a public holiday.
- CHINA (transport). From Friday, Sept. 29 to Friday, Oct. 6, for the traditional Golden Week, an inflation of travel (air, rail, road) is to be expected nationwide. Authorities are expecting over 20 million passengers to board planes, with 14,000 domestic flights scheduled for each day of the holiday week.
OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS
- Natural hazards: individuals present in East Asia (TAIWAN), Southeast Asia, South Asia and Oceania (NEW-ZEALAND; FIJI) will be attentive to local bad weather (cf. rainfalls; violent winds; heatwave), natural hazards (cf. earthquake) that may impact safety and travel and will comply with the instructions of local authorities.
- Public order: as public gatherings may impact travel or even degenerate into clashes, people present in INDIA, SRI LANKA, PAKISTAN, SOUTH KOREA, MALDIVES or INDONESIA will stay away from these various types of demonstrations.
- With the security threat (terrorism, civil war, kidnapping) remaining at its highest, and Western governments suggesting to their citizens that they should not travel to these countries except for imperative reasons, travel to AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, BURMA, NORTH KOREA and PAPUA-NG remains inadvisable.
- Finally, in view of the tense relations between Beijing and Taipei, the dispute in the South China Sea (Beijing/Manila) and the recurrent provocations / actions of North Korea, we cannot rule out the occurrence of events in the Asia-Pacific region over the next few days that could have consequences for regional stability and the smooth running/relevance of travel.
Author(s)
Dr. Olivier Guillard
Director, Intelligence
Olivier Guillard manages a team of intelligence analysts, completes field missions, and provides training to clients. Olivier joined the Crisis24 team in 2002. He is well regarded in the industry as...
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