Asia Outlook: Week of September 4, 2023

ASIA SUMMARY

September 4, 2023

Burma, China, India, Indonesia, North Korea, South Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand

WEEK-END

• NORTH KOREA (defense). On Saturday, Sept. 2, the NK regime simulated a "tactical nuclear attack" by firing 2 longrange cruise missiles carrying fictitious nuclear warheads into the Yellow Sea.
• CHINA (bad weather). On Saturday, Sept. 2., typhoon Saola swept across the south of the country, after having battered (but without causing major damage) Hong Kong. The day before, tens of millions of people had confined themselves to their homes in anticipation of bad weather.
• THAILAND (politics). On Saturday, Sept. 2, a quarter after the parliamentary elections, King M. Vajiralongkorn (at last) approved the government of the new Prime Minister S. Thavisin (Pheu Thai party), a real-estate tycoon.
• SINGAPORE (politics). On Friday, Sept. 1, in the 1st ballot in twelve years for this essentially honorary post, former Deputy Prime Minister T. Shanmugaratnam was elected president of the prosperous Southeast Asian city-state.
• PAKISTAN (public order). On Saturday, Sept. 2, in Lahore, Karachi and Peshawar, shopkeepers closed up store and went on strike against the rise in energy and fuel prices, sparking widespread discontent..
• BURMA (civil war). By the end of August, the number of civilians killed since the coup d'état in Feb. 2021 had exceeded 4,000, as the junta stepped up its campaign of atrocities. 1,080 civilians have died since the beginning of the year.
• MONGOLIA (public order). On Friday, Sept. 1, Pope Francis began the first ever papal visit to this landlocked country with its very small Catholic community (1,400 individuals), a rare trip ending on Monday, Sept 4.

TO BE MONITORED (in the next few days)

• TAIWAN (bad weather). Typhoon Haikui made landfall and caused power cuts and flooding overnight in the central highlands of the island, before making landfall again on the morning of Sept. 4 in the southwest (Kaohsiung). 
• SOUTH KOREA (public order). On Monday, Sept. 4, in Seoul, 20,000 teachers demonstrate for better protection of their rights. On Saturday, Sept. 2, 200,000 teachers gathered in the capital near the National Assembly.
• INDIA (transport; security). New Delhi will host the G-20 summit on Sept. 9 and 10. 3 days, starting on Sept. 8, have been declared public holidays for civil servants to reduce traffic. Markets and banks in the center of the capital, where the summit will be held, will also remain closed.
• PAKISTAN (public order; transport). On Monday, Sept. 4, unionized Civil Aviation Authority employees demonstrate outside civil airports against the privatization of certain airport operations, with a priori no major impact on flights.
• INDONESIA (transport; security). Jakarta hosts the 43rd ASEAN Summit and related events from Sept. 2 to 7. Traffic on various routes near the Jakarta Convention Centre is impacted by these events.
• THAILAND (public order). Security to remain significantly reinforced in the capital Bangkok in the coming days, in the wake of the recent appointment of a new Prime Minister and the installation of his government.
• MALAYSIA (health). The haze (air pollution fog) is back, with the air quality index recording on Monday, Sept. 4 possible health-damaging levels in some regions of Penang (Seberang Jaya) and Sarawak. 

OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS

• Natural hazards: individuals present in East Asia (TAIWAN, CHINA, HK), Southeast Asia and South Asia will be alert to various local weather conditions (typhoons, rainfall, flooding), natural hazards (cf. earthquakes) that may impact safety and travel and will comply with the instructions of local authorities.
• Public order: as public gatherings may impact travel or even degenerate into confrontations, people present in INDIA, THAILAND, PAKISTAN, SOUTH KOREA or INDONESIA will remain away from these various types of demonstrations.
• With the security threat (terrorism, civil war, kidnapping) remaining at its highest, and Western governments suggesting that their citizens refrain from traveling to these countries unless there is a compelling reason to do so, travel to AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, BURMA, NORTH KOREA and PAPUA-NG remains inadvisable.
• Health: in INDONESIA, BANGLADESH and certain regions of MALAYSIA, air quality (PM 2.5; haze), occasionally exceeding thresholds unfit for human health, will continue to be monitored over the next few days/weeks.
• In view of the delicate relations between Beijing and Taipei, between China and India, the tense situation in the South China Sea (Beijing/Manila) and the continuing defiance of the North Korean regime, we can't rule out over the next few days the occurrence of events in the Indo-Pacific region with consequences for regional stability and the smooth running/relevance of travel.