Increased Security Concerns
The failed assassination attempt against former President and Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump on July 13 has increased security concerns around the 2024 presidential race. The shooting, which took place in Butler, Pennsylvania, where Trump was holding a campaign rally, has sparked fears of more acts of political violence in the coming months. It has also prompted several statements from political leaders, including Trump and President Joe Biden, to tone down the heated rhetoric in hopes of reducing tensions and lessen the possibility of further extremist actions.
The Republican National Convention Goes On
Despite the assassination attempt, the Republican National Convention (RNC) will continue to go on as planned in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, from July 15-18. Security plans are likely to remain unchanged, except with an increased awareness focusing on potential shooters. As the campaigning continues, security is likely to be stricter and tighter for large outdoor campaign rallies, and indoor events are likely to have additional controls over who enters a facility. Moreover, organizers have designed a specific area where protests can take place.
Since no direct links were made between the failed assassination attempt and any specific ideological group, the likelihood of a retaliatory attack is low. Still, prominent political leaders, even beyond U.S. election candidates, are likely to keep extra security and limit their public appearances in the short term.
The Post-Election Scenario
The assassination attempt also raises security concerns about possible post-election violence. How long the political leaders can maintain the conciliatory tone they have had since the July 13 shooting will be key to either decreasing or increasing the likelihood of major protests and violence prior to, during, and immediately after Nov. 5.
As discussed in our 2024 Global Risk Forecast’s Americas webinar, both candidates have high levels of polarization and animosity among their supporters and opponents, and the election is expected to be close and contentious. As a result, from a security standpoint, we may witness competing protests, potential threats to election workers, and acts of vandalism affecting public and private property.
Expert Advice on How to Stay Safe
Consequently, individuals and organizations should ensure that they sharpen their situational awareness and risk management plans around events related to the election.
General
- Be aware of the local situation and the ongoing developments.
- Monitor local events through social media or local news outlets and consider that the situation could escalate.
- Allow extra time for possible travel disruptions and security checks.
- Exercise good situational awareness and maintain heightened vigilance.
- Note any individuals seemingly loitering in and around the premises, suspicious objects, and any other unusual incidents.
- Report any suspicious activity, individuals, vehicles, or objects to the local police immediately and follow their instructions.
Organizations
- Review security and emergency procedures (immediate actions on / response, communications, reporting, notification, etc.)
- Ensure that your emergency response plans are up-to-date and that all employees are aware of emergency procedures.
- Contact your insurer to review the policies that are in place.
- Ensure staff is aware of the potential threat(s), and they know what to do if they, the business, and/or customers are at risk.
- Consider additional security on the day of events.
- Keep a neutral social media stance, manage your social media and advertising accounts tightly, and encourage staff not to conduct political activities in the workplace.
In the Event of a Major Security Incident
- Exit the area immediately; do not head to the scene.
- Leave all non-essential belongings behind.
- Find somewhere out of sight to wait until help arrives.
- If outside, move indoors, and seek safety within a building.
- If unable to move indoors, take cover away from the incident.
- Follow instructions of police and emergency services.
To access a more complete analysis of the U.S. elections and other critical events, subscribe to Crisis24’s watchlists.
Author(s)
