The posting of narco-messages (narcomanta/narcomensaje) and persistent incidents of targeted assassinations indicate that turf wars between rival groups are likely to intensify across several Mexican states. This is despite the latest figures of the Mexican Security Secretariat (Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad, SESNSP) documenting consistent, intentional homicide figures countrywide, with 14,374 reported incidents between January – June 2021 compared to 14,505 in 2020.
The highest number of incidents were recorded in the states of Baja California (1,410), Guanajuato (1,469), Mexico State (1,134), and Chihuahua (1,048). The actual figures are likely to be much higher, largely due to delayed reporting and failure to account for bodies often found in clandestine graves in preliminary statistics.
Crisis24 anticipates that high levels of inter-gang violence, including shootings in public places and assassinations, are likely to continue unabated in states such as Baja California, Guanajuato, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Michoacán. However, other hotspots to observe over the next half of the year include Tamaulipas, Zacatecas, and Veracruz. By contrast, despite sporadic incidents, such violence is likely to remain infrequent in tourist areas along the Mayan Riviera.
Areas to Watch in the Second Half of 2021
Internal competition among different factions of the Gulf Cartel (CDG) and the strengthening of rival cartels, such as the Noreste Cartel (CDN) in Tamaulipas, are likely to be drivers for an increase in retaliatory attacks over the next six months. In recent years, the CDG has operated through a series of fragmented groups, such as Los Fresitas, Grupo Dragones, Los Metros, Escorpiones, and Los Ciclones.
The extent of the competition within the CDG was highlighted on June 19, 2021, when a series of attacks between rival internal groups in Reynosa resulted in 15 civilians and four criminals killed. The CDG has since announced through a series of narcomantas an internal truce – however, this remains unlikely to hold in the long term.
Paired with this internal competition, the advance of the CDN exacerbates the likelihood of violent shootouts between Nuevo Laredo and Reynosa. In a narcomanta posted on July 21, 2021 in the municipality of Miguel Aleman, the CDN threatened retaliation against an alleged alliance of the CJNG and the CDG. Regardless of whether such pact exists or will hold, it reinforces that the presence of multiple rival groups intent on controlling the state – and the internal competition within the CDG – will contribute to an increase of violent shootouts across Tamaulipas over the coming quarter.
The spotlight also remains on the state of Zacatecas, where competition between the CJNG, CDS, CDN, and Los Talibanes over key trafficking routes from the Port of Manzanillo (Colima) to the US-Mexico border is likely to continue fuelling violent armed confrontations. Over the past month, a series of narcomantas, targeted assassinations, and confrontations have been reported across the municipalities of Fresnillo, Guadalupe, Jerez, Valparaiso, Villanueva, and Zacatecas (city).
Most recently, between July 17 – 18, an estimated 30 people were killed in separate incidents across the state – following prolonged inter-gang shootouts or confrontations with local security forces. Such competition will likely continue spilling over into neighboring San Luis Potosi. Earlier, on June 8, alleged CJNG members posted a narcomensaje threatening the CDG in Tamuin, announcing an intent to ‘cleanse’ the area.
The corridor between Xalapa, Orizaba, Córdoba, and Veracruz is also likely to remain a hotspot for inter-gang violence in the coming quarter. On July 5, the authorities retrieved a series of narcomantas on multiple bridges across Córdoba and Fortín – signed by Grupo Operativo Z – threatening CJNG operations in the area. Competition in the state is likely to continue intensifying due to the highly fragmented criminal landscape in the area and the presence of several profitable criminal revenue streams, from train cargo and oil theft to migrant trafficking, as well as the strategic access to the Veracruz Port.
While there are dozens of small groups dedicated to such crimes, the most prominent organized criminal groups in the area remain the CJNG, CDG, and Grupo Sombra, as well as several other splinter groups of the former Zetas, such as Los Zetas Vieja Escuela. The July 8 arrest of the plaza boss of the CDG in Tuxpan, north of Veracruz, will likely provide an opportunity for Grupo Sombra to further expand into neighboring states – such as Hidalgo – elevating the likelihood of targeted assassinations and shootouts in the short term.
Near-Term Outlook for Tourist Areas
The spill-over of violence into tourist areas across Yucatan and Quintana Roo, such as Cancun and Playa del Carmen, is likely to remain infrequent. This is despite the recent finding of a narcomanta on July 7 in Region 227 of Cancun, threatening state security forces. This is the second message publicly reported in several months, after another narcomensaje, accompanied by a severed head, was retrieved on May 7 in Colonia Region 100. In Cancun, inter-gang violence for the control of extortion or micro-trafficking tends to remain concentrated in neighborhoods north and south of Carretera Costera del Golfo.
Retaliatory attacks against rival members or over unpaid extortion fees at beaches frequented by foreigners are rare. Since the start of the year, there have been seven incidents recorded across Quintana Roo. However, on June 11, a shootout between criminals resulted in two men dead and a US-national tourist injured in the confrontation in Playa Tortugas (Bulevar Kukulkán 26KM). Similarly, on June 25, two men were killed, and another injured during a shootout at a beach in Tulum. Such incidents, although rare, are likely to remain an indirect threat to foreign nationals over the second half of 2021.
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