As the anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks in Israel and the start of the current Israel-Hamas conflict approaches, protests by various activist groups are expected to take place globally. Groups condemning Israel’s military actions in the Gaza Strip, West Bank, and Lebanon may protest near Israeli diplomatic missions, synagogues, and Jewish cultural centers. Protests will also likely occur near US diplomatic missions. Supporters of Israel may also organize counterdemonstrations, which could potentially lead to violence. Some demonstrations may cause transport disruptions, as protesters block streets and traffic to highlight their grievances. Most major cities are preparing for an increase in protests by dispatching police and security forces to locations where demonstrations are likely. Most major demonstrations have been planned in advance, but smaller spontaneous protests are also possible. Antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents could also increase globally in the run up to the anniversary. Large-scale militant attacks are unlikely, but authorities are preparing for possible terrorist activity by increasing security around sensitive sites and critical infrastructure. Radicalized individuals acting alone may try to carry out attacks, such as shootings, stabbings, vehicle rammings, or detonating crudely made bombs.
The following provides an overview of how it will impact each region
Middle East and North Africa
Rallies and demonstrations in solidarity with Palestinians are likely across the Middle East and North Africa region ahead of and on the anniversary. Organizers of rallies and protests and their participants will almost certainly demand a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. While many demonstrations will almost certainly manifest a strong anti-Israeli and anti-Western sentiment, significant violence is unlikely at most rallies. Officials will almost certainly maintain a heightened security presence in areas subject to protest activity to monitor gatherings and manage crowds.
Protests demanding a ceasefire and the liberation of hostages held in Gaza are also possible in Israel, despite security restrictions limiting gatherings in Central Israel and Jerusalem, which Israeli authorities introduced in mid-September. The Israeli government will almost certainly increase security across the country and place its security forces on a high state of alert ahead of and on Oct. 7. Officials will likely close borders with the West Bank, and could introduce security checkpoints in certain areas of Israel in anticipation of possible coordinated and lone-actor militant attacks. Additionally, the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” which consists of Iran's proxies in the region, will likely launch missile and drone attacks against major Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv.
An elevated threat of violence, as well as increased security measures, are likely near Jewish, Israeli, and overtly Western facilities throughout the region. Individuals or small groups could attempt to conduct attacks against these sites or individuals associated with them. Assailants could act on behalf of militant groups or alone. Gun, knife, vehicle-ramming, or bomb attacks are possible.
Americas
Pro-Palestinian activists are likely to stage rallies in major cities across the US and Canada through at least mid-October to mark the anniversary, and the start of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict; demonstrations related to the Israel-Hizballah conflict are also likely.
Because it falls on a weekend, activists are using Oct. 5 as a day of major mobilizations in cities across the US and Canada, including Austin, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Montreal, New York, Ottawa, Toronto, and Washington, DC. Protests in such major cities Oct. 5 are likely to see thousands or tens of thousands of participants, prompting authorities to deploy an increased security presence near gathering sites. Smaller protests are also likely Oct. 5 in smaller cities and on university campuses.
At all such demonstrations, counterprotests are also possible, and though most demonstrations will likely remain peaceful, clashes between rival groups, as well as between activists and police, may occur. There may also be other forms of confrontational behavior, including harassment, vandalism, and the removal of flags or posters placed by opposing groups.
Some activist organizations have announced a "week of rage" for Oct. 7-11 without providing specific details on the times and locations of their intended actions. Most gatherings and demonstrations will likely occur in and around college campuses, in major squares, near government offices, near Israeli diplomatic offices, identifiably Jewish or Palestinian business establishments, and places of worship. Protests may also target major roads and highways, ports, and industries. Again, counterprotests could occur in some locations.
Elsewhere in the Americas, pro-Palestinian organizations plan on holding demonstrations in major cities. On Oct. 5, protesters will gather in Mexico City, Mexico; Quito, Ecuador; and Santiago, Chile. On Oct. 7, demonstrators will rally in Lima, Peru; Buenos Aires, Argentina; San Jose, Costa Rica; Belo Horizonte, Brazil; and Guadalajara, Mexico. Additional demonstrations in Latin America and the Caribbean are possible, and police are likely to deploy at protest sites, with clashes possible, especially if authorities attempt to forcibly disperse the protests.
Europe
Ongoing protest campaigns relating to the Middle East conflict will likely continue in major cities across the region while it persists. Campaign groups across Europe have intensified protest activity following Israel's strikes against Lebanese Hizballah (LH) in Lebanon. Protest activity will likely intensify further through Oct. 7 as rival activist groups intensify their campaigns to mark the anniversary. Authorities across Europe will likely also prepare for an escalation in security threats during this period. Counterdemonstrations are possible at all rallies.
Additionally, security incidents, ranging from short-notice, temporary security alerts to rudimentary attacks with makeshift weapons, or even isolated shootings or bomb attacks, are possible near Israeli embassies, consulates, and synagogues across Europe following the recent intensification of the violence. Authorities will likely continue to impose increased security measures in response to terrorist threat assessments. Recent incidents include a shooting near the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm, Sweden, late on Oct. 1, and two explosions that occurred near the Israeli Embassy in Copenhagen, Denmark, early on Oct. 2. Further incidents near or targeting Israeli interests across Europe are possible and will likely continue to prompt national authorities to review security alert levels. The governments of Austria, France, the Netherlands, and Portugal have raised their terrorism threat warning levels, while authorities in Spain and Italy have increased security.
Authorities in France, Germany, and the UK have reported significant increases in antisemitic and Islamophobic crimes, including verbal abuse and vandalism, prompting them to increase security at synagogues, mosques, and religious schools.
Africa
Related demonstrations have materialized across Africa since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023. While violence has been reported at some rallies, with some protesters killed during clashes with security forces in the cities of Kaduna and Zaria in northern Nigeria, most have remained peaceful. The most frequent gatherings have occurred in South Africa, specifically in Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Pretoria, and there is an elevated possibility of clashes between pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli activists in the country; a skirmish between opposing demonstrators in Cape Town previously occurred in November 2023. Business operations are unlikely to be seriously affected by the protests, regardless of their motivation, but localized transport disruptions are likely in areas that are subject to protest activity, particularly if demonstrators march along main roadways, impeding the flow of traffic.
There is currently an increased threat of violence targeting Israeli diplomatic missions and Jewish businesses and sites in Africa. Any attacks could take the form of minor arson incidents or other types of vandalism, but also more serious assaults involving the use of explosives or guns. Other possible targets include Western interests and citizens and diplomatic offices, notably those of France, the UK, and the US.
Asia-Pacific
An escalation in pro-Palestine protests is likely in Australia as well as Muslim-majority countries such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Pakistan around Oct. 7. There will be a heightened possibility of related violence in Australian cities if protesters defy official bans on rallies; there will also be a potential for confrontations during vigils by Jewish groups. Widespread or significant disruptions are unlikely in most other locations, given several states like Fiji, India, and Singapore have also prohibited rallies related to the ongoing conflict, and many Pacific Island territories remain aligned with Israel.
Nevertheless, authorities regionwide are likely to boost counter-terror measures to prevent any opportunistic attacks. Isolated attacks by self-radicalized individuals using rudimentary weapons or small improvised explosive devices (IEDs) remain the most serious concern and could target US and/or Israeli diplomatic buildings, US and aligned military facilities, hotels, and other venues frequented by Western tourists, crowded public places, as well as Jewish religious sites. Large attacks are unlikely as prominent terror groups in the region, such as the Taliban in Afghanistan, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, and the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), have not announced any related offensive campaigns. This is mainly due to their purist Sunni Salafist doctrines, which are ideologically opposed to Shi’a groups like Hizballah and the Al-Houthis, which form part of the Axis of Resistance.
The Main Concern: Protest and Civil Unrest
Protests and unrest will be the main security concerns around the Oct. 7 anniversary of the Hamas attacks in Israel. Events in the Middle East have always been highly charged, and as the current security situation in the region worsens, groups will become more vocal, which may lead to violence against opposing groups, as well as security forces. Antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents are expected to increase in the run-up to and during the anniversary. Terrorist attacks by lone-wolf perpetrators acting on their own initiative may occur, but large-scale attacks are unlikely as security forces worldwide will be in a state of heightened vigilance.
Following the anniversary, protests will continue in many regions for as long as large-scale hostilities in the Middle East last, and will likely intensify in response to related developments, including high-casualty incidents, new offensives, humanitarian pauses, diplomatic efforts, and any legal moves at the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court.
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