Security forces have adopted an uncompromising approach to unrest, and will forcibly disperse further protests, including with lethal force.
Tight security and further civil unrest likely across Kazakhstan through at least mid-January following recent wave of violent protests.
Heavy security measures and sporadic protests will likely continue to cause disruptions across Kazakhstan following the outbreak of violent unrest, which was sparked by the government’s removal of a cap on fuel prices Jan. 2. The protests later morphed into a broader violent anti-government campaign, which overwhelmed security services in several cities.
President Toqayev subsequently organized a very robust security response to quell the protests, implementing a state of emergency and requesting assistance from allied countries after concessions failed to appease protesters. Security forces have now regained control of most areas as the momentum of the unrest has declined. Nevertheless, sporadic unrest continues to pose an immediate threat to those in the vicinity, but the greater disruption will likely come from increased security measures nationwide intended to suppress further unrest.
Protests initially broke out in Zhanaozen over sharp increases in fuel costs Jan. 2 following the government’s decision to lift price caps on liquified petroleum gas (LPG), a major source of fuel in Kazakhstan. Unrest subsequently spread to cities nationwide from Jan. 4, while the motivation of participants expanded to encompass broader social issues, including government corruption, low wages, and unemployment. Protests turned violent in multiple cities, with activists attempting to force their way into regional government buildings, destroying property, and clashing with riot police, resulting in deaths on both sides.
Almaty saw the worst violence as thousands of protesters broke into two government buildings, including the city’s presidential palace, setting both ablaze; some activists also seized weapons from police facilities. Other impacted cities include Almaty, Aktau, Aktobe, Atyrau, Kostanay, Oral, Shymkent, Taldykorgan, Taraz, and Zhanaozen. Both Almaty International Airport (ALA) and Aktau International Airport (SCO) were forced to suspend operations as a result of the unrest, and several airlines have canceled flights in Kazakhstan.
Toqayev initially made a number of concessions in an effort to pacify the protesters. The LPG price cap has been temporarily reinstated, the government has resigned, and former President Nursultan Nazarbayev has been dismissed from his position as head of the country’s National Security Council, though these failed to appease protesters.
Authorities also imposed a nationwide state of emergency through at least Jan. 19, including a nightly 23:00-07:00 curfew and restrictions on freedom of movement and mass gatherings, as well as disrupting telecommunications services nationwide. Toqayev also requested assistance from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), an international military alliance consisting of six former Soviet states, with members sending the first troops to assist Kazakh security services in restoring order on Jan. 6.
Initial success for the protesters was possible because authorities did not anticipate the violence and level of participation in the unrest, leading police to be overwhelmed in many locations. Security services have since regrouped, aided by Toqayev taking control of the Security Council and receiving support from CSTO member states, and have begun conducting counteroffensives in many of these locations.
Authorities are deploying large numbers of security personnel to enforce restrictions implemented by the state of emergency and disperse all unauthorized gatherings, through lethal force if necessary. A security operation in Almaty Jan. 6 killed dozens of protesters. Toqayev claimed that order had broadly been restored by Jan. 7.
While sporadic violent protests are likely to continue in the coming days, it is likely that unrest will decline as the security response is increased and organized. The protesters themselves are not unified behind a particular political figure or movement, inhibiting their ability to coordinate and sustain the unrest to achieve a particular goal.
Although other leaderless protest movements in recent years, notably the Yellow Vests in France, have sustained themselves by grassroots activists organizing through social media, Toqayev’s ability to impose telecommunications blackouts effectively precludes this for activists in Kazakhstan. As a result, it is likely protests will begin to decline with time through natural attrition, as well as in response to the uncompromising security force crackdown.
In the short term, any protest activity and security force counteroperations will pose an immediate threat to anyone in the vicinity; bystanders could also face risk of being caught up in mass detentions. The State of Emergency expires on Jan. 19, at which point measures including curfews and restrictions on movement will likely be rolled back, though increased security measures will almost certainly continue beyond this date. As a result, disruptions to business and travel, in addition to sporadic telecommunications services, will continue in the coming weeks.
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