The nationwide 90-minute ground stop order of all US domestic departures Jan. 10-11 led to more than 11,000 flight cancelations and delays. Although the US National Airspace System (NAS) encompasses the most complex and busiest airspace in the world, disruption on this scale had not happened since Sept. 11, 2001 and the incident highlighted a multitude of concerns, including over aging technology, human factors, and cybersecurity threats. These come amid an already heightened climate of animosity toward aviation delays and cancellations in the industry. The potential costs of failing to rectify these deficiencies will act as a strong incentive for industry stakeholders to work toward addressing them in the medium term, though further widespread and disruptive incidents remain possible in the interim.
Safety Implications and Requirements
Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) – previously known as Notice to Airmen – provide time-sensitive information on changes to the NAS. They are published in real-time and therefore not listed on other published materials such as aeronautical charts. Along with updates to charts, they also notify users of an abnormal status affecting the NAS, such as temporary airport closures or the closure of a specific portion of the airspace. NOTAMs are a small piece of the system that contributes to the NAS being the safest mode of travel in the US; in addition, pilots must also review pertinent NOTAMs prior to any flight. However, the outage triggered safety concerns that the distribution of these notices might be interrupted, which likely prompted a suspension of air traffic and brought technology to the forefront of industry concerns.
Technology under Pressure
Aging technology and concerns over a lack of system redundancy are not new to the aviation community, as was demonstrated by the December meltdown of operations at Southwest Airlines (WN), which was partially blamed on a reported failure to invest in the company’s IT systems. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has repeatedly faced criticism and accusations of failure to manage and improve the legacy systems within Air Traffic Control (ATC) and has previously requested specific portions of the 2023 budget toward fixing antique hardware and system updates, to include NOTAMs. However, though industry partners are likely aware of such deficiencies in the ever-evolving technology environment, to rectify them would necessitate a significant financial investment when many carriers and government agencies are operating under harsher financial conditions following the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the US Department of Transportation has taken steps to lessen the burden on passengers by requiring US carriers to reimburse them for canceled flights and to cover expenses up to a preset limit, which has added to the financial challenge.
The Human Factor
Although aging technology has featured prominently in some of the most recent meltdowns, more than likely these events began with a triggering event, such as weather, in the case of Southwest Airlines, or other system failures. Human interaction with technology often enhances safety in the industry, but can also act as a catalyst in any system breakdown and was likely a contributing factor in the recent FAA outage. The NAS has many different components that allow various actors within its architecture to work in coordination with one another, including government contractors and individuals who assist with and oversee those systems. The recent events may act to shine a spotlight on training and staffing levels to decrease human error.
Vulnerabilities to the Cyberthreat
Although no direct evidence has emerged indicating that the Jan. 10-11 outage was the result of a cyberattack, the incident did expose the vulnerability of possible overreliance on a single system to hostile actors. This would give any successful attacker a greater ability to halt a large part of air traffic in the US, dramatically increasing disruptive and economic impact. Questions surrounding the security of old or outdated technology, as well as their vulnerabilities to system outages, will therefore continue to be a growing concern within the industry.
Conclusion
The aviation sector must be safety-minded and, in most cases, highly risk adverse: these principles have generally proven effective over time given the safety record of US aviation. However, public perceptions of and confidence in the reliability of US flights has likely decreased in recent years, and will continue to suffer for the foreseeable future due to sporadic disruptions within the NAS. Nevertheless, the FAA and carriers alike will most likely work toward updating technology and adjusting staffing levels to rectify shortfalls in the medium term. Despite the challenging operating environment, the penalties and costs associated with carriers when recovering from large-scale disruptive events can devastate profit margins and will serve as a strong motivator for a rapid solution to the current deficiencies.
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