Violence appears to be increasing in the Palestinian Territories (PT) and Israel amid heightened tensions between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Palestinian militants. The year 2022 was one of the most violent since the second Intifada, or uprising, ended in 2005. More than 130 Palestinians were killed in 2022 during clashes with the IDF in the West Bank. The IDF has also arrested nearly 2,000 Palestinians in near-nightly raids in the region. In turn, Palestinian militants have killed dozens of people in terror attacks across Israel since the spring of 2022. The rise in the number of violent attacks, clashes, and nightly raids by the IDF have raised concerns about the possibility of a third Intifada. The first Intifada occurred between December 1987 and September 1993 and involved a sustained campaign of violent demonstrations in Israel and PT. The second Intifada transpired between September 2000 and February 2005 and was in response to former Israeli leader Ariel Sharon’s visit to the Temple Mount, which Palestinians call Al-Haram ash-Sharif.
The violence is not only confined to the West Bank cities of Nablus, Hebron, and Jenin. The IDF conducted airstrikes against locations in the Gaza Strip targeting militants after they launched rockets into southern Israel in late January and again in early February of this year. The latest exchange of fire between the IDF and Gaza-based militants came against the background of one of the most violent episodes in recent years. An Israeli raid left 10 Palestinians, including seven militants, dead in Jenin on Jan. 26. On Jan. 27, a Palestinian gunman opened fire on people near a synagogue in the Neve Yaakov neighborhood of East Jerusalem, killing seven people and wounding three others. In addition, on Jan. 28, a Palestinian teenager shot and wounded two people in the city’s Silwan area.
In response, Israeli authorities heightened security measures and “permanently” positioned counterterrorism officers in Jerusalem to respond to “exceptional events whenever necessary.” Additionally, the IDF deployed additional army battalions to the West Bank. Authorities in Israel have also bolstered security nationwide in the aftermath of several terror attacks since the early spring of 2022. The series of attacks across the country, including in Be'er Sheva, Hadera, Bnei Brak, Jerusalem, and Tel Aviv, prompted authorities to launch Operation Break the Wave in late March 2022. The operation focuses on the West Bank and aims to stem the wave of terror attacks that have killed nearly 40 people and wounded dozens of others.
The increase in violence can be attributed to a mix of at least three factors, including the Israeli government’s decisions and policies in relation to the settlements in the West Bank and neighborhoods in East Jerusalem. An 11-day conflict between Hamas and the IDF, which began in May of 2021, largely stemmed from tensions surrounding the Temple Mount/Al-Haram ash-Sharif compound and Israeli Supreme Court’s ruling to evict Palestinians from Sheikh Jarrah. The IDF launched Operation Guardian of the Walls to target the Hamas militant group facilities and to preempt rocket fires. Despite the IDF’s sustained military air campaign, Hamas fired over 4,000 projectiles into Israel, and targeted major cities like Tel Aviv. The cross-border violence killed at least 232 Palestinians and 12 people in Israel. Israeli raids in the West Bank and arrests or killings of senior militant leaders have served as another trigger for major escalation in the region. For example, the August 2022 conflict between the IDF and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) materialized in direct response to the arrest of Bassem al-Saadi in Jenin on Aug. 1. Al-Saadi was a PIJ senior leader; the PIJ demanded that the IDF release him. Following PIJ’s persistent threats of rocket fire into Israel, the IDF launched Operation Breaking Dawn targeting military bases in the Gaza Stirp. The conflict, which lasted three days, killed at least 43 Palestinians and wounded hundreds of others. Another three Israelis incurred injuries in the cross-border fighting.
Beyond the Israeli government’s decisions involving Palestinians and Israeli raids and clashes with Palestinian militants, the third cause behind the escalation stems from major terror attacks within Israel and rocket fires from the Gaza Strip. In the aftermath of major terror attacks, the Israeli government has typically increased security across the West Bank, established checkpoints, and introduced punitive measures against Palestinians, including movement restrictions. These measures have exacerbated the existing tensions. Additionally, the emergence of a new Palestinian group - Lions’ Den - in the West Bank in August 2022 has further escalated tensions. Lions’ Den, which is supposedly receiving support from Gaza-based militant groups, has been behind a number of attacks against the IDF and Israeli civilians. The militant group is largely composed of men in their early 20s who have focused their efforts on fighting the IDF in the West Bank.
Tensions remain high and the political process has largely failed; few Palestinians in the Gaza Strip or the West Bank have faith in it. The concern is that the new Israeli government, headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which is the most right-wing government in Israeli history, may engage in annexing territories and recognizing illegal settlements. These policies will almost certainly trigger a Palestinian response, which could manifest in further attacks against Israeli civilians and military personnel. While the impact stemming from these tensions on businesses has been limited, disruptions to commercial operations are likely in the event of a major escalation.
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