Iraq: Elevated risk of attacks in Baghdad following Mosul liberation

Event

The likelihood of high-profile attacks in Baghdad remains elevated following the announced liberation of Mosul from Islamic State (IS) control. Priority targets could include military or police installations, high-traffic areas in the city center, or predominantly Shi'a neighborhoods. However, the current strict security posture maintained by Iraqi authorities will likely limit any actual attacks to secondary or opportunistic targets in the outlying provincial or city districts.

Context

The recent expulsion of IS from the northern city of Mosul by Iraqi forces will likely spur retaliatory attacks. Prior to IS' seizure of territory in north and west Iraq (it took control of Mosul in June 2014), the group and its predecessors operated as a largely asymmetric organization. Though such activity has continued in the intervening years, the group has since focused more of its resources on defending its captured territory, and it has long been assessed that they would revert to the asymmetric model following their removal from key redoubts such as Mosul. Several recent vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attack attempts have been linked with this current threat.

Advice

Insurgent groups in Iraq are not currently prioritizing attacks on foreign interests or private security traffic, so this specific threat is considered to be indirect, and can be effectively mitigated through engaging with a private security company.

The security environment in Iraq remains complex and the north and west of federal Iraq is non-permissive to most foreign organizations. The threat from terrorism and violent crime in other areas varies, but the services of a private security company to facilitate business operations is highly recommended.