Iran, Iraq: Adverse weather forecast across both countries through at least Nov. 14

Severe weather is forecast across much of Iran and Iraq through at least Nov. 14. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the region Nov. 8-9 before a weather system moves into central and northern Iraq Nov. 10-11 and over Iran Nov. 11-14. Storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail. Snowfall is possible in higher elevations and strong winds may generate dust storms in arid parts of the region. Heavy downpours may trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes. Strong winds may cause property damage and power outages.

Iranian meteorological authorities have forecast showers, storms, and strong winds over northern parts of the country Nov. 8 and rain, thunderstorm, and strong wind warnings are in place over Alborz, eastern Qazvin, and Theran provinces. Further scattered showers are forecast across northwestern regions Nov. 9. Generally stable conditions are forecast across the country Nov. 10 before a weather system moving in from the west brings showers and storms to many parts of the country through at least Nov. 14.

Light showers are possible in southern regions of Iraq Nov. 8. Generally dry conditions are forecast across much of the country Nov. 9 before a weather system moves in Nov. 10-11, bringing showers and storms to much of the country. The Iraqi Meteorological and Seismology Organization has issued a weather report warning that much of central, northern, and western and parts of southern Iraq will be affected by unstable weather Nov. 10-11.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities may issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, and/or landslides impact utility networks.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the affected area. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds may also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.

Hazardous weather conditions may cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.