Venezuela: Mercosur requests suspension of planned July 30 elections

Event

The Mercosur bloc issued a warning to Venezuela on Friday, July 21, regarding its departure from democratic norms. The statement, issued by the founding members of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, requested that Venezuela suspend the elections planned for Sunday, July 30, due to concerns that the democratic process has been compromised. The July 30 elections are slated to form a constitutional assembly that would draft a new constitution, replacing the 1999 document supported by Hugo Chávez. Although the proposed assembly would be composed of elected representatives, the election is only fielding candidates supportive of Maduro’s agenda.

Venezuela’s membership in Mercosur has been suspended since December 2016, and the bloc’s request will likely go unheeded by the Maduro administration in Caracas. The regime considers the bloc’s continued calls to restore rule of law in the country as a form of “imperialist interference.” Protests are expected to continue in the coming days and will likely intensify in the run-up to the July 30 elections. Violence is likely.

Context

Approximately 100 people have been killed and 1500 more injured due to social unrest since the beginning of the current wave of anti-government protests in Venezuela began in early April of this year. Anti-government supporters may be increasing their activity since Leopoldo Lopez, a prominent opposition leader, was released from a military prison on July 8 to serve the remainder of his 14-year sentence under house arrest. The opposition has announced that it plans to set up a "national unity" government and name alternative judges for the pro-Maduro Supreme Court, leading to speculation that a parallel state structure is being formed.

Violent and often deadly clashes between protesters and security forces continue to occur on a near-daily basis in Venezuela, most notably in the capital city of Caracas. The vast majority of the victims have been killed by security forces, who have repeatedly been accused of excessive use of force, and the situation continues to escalate with no resolution in sight. Pro-government militias are also reportedly behind some of the violence.

These developments follow on a long series of progressively worsening crises affecting the restive country in recent months and years, including a breakdown of the democratic system, major shortages of gasoline, medications, food, and other basic necessities, an alarming spike in rates of violent crime, massive inflation and economic recession, and a resurgence of disease. Protesters regularly demand early elections, the resignation of President Maduro, the release of political prisoners, and humanitarian assistance from the government.

Advice

Individuals in Caracas and other Venezuelan cities are advised to limit movements, to strictly avoid all protests and roadblocks due to the likelihood of violence and the risk of arbitrary arrest, and to closely monitor developments to the situation.