Korean Peninsula: Possible North Korean missile launch on September 9

Event

South Korea is closely monitoring military activity from its Korean counterpart ahead of the anniversary of the North Korean regime’s founding on Saturday, September 9. In 2016, Pyongyang launched missiles days before the September 9 foundation day, and conducted a nuclear test on the day, the fifth at the time. Their sixth and so far most powerful nuclear test was conducted on September 3, with the successful launch of a hydrogen bomb, which had been preceded by two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) the month prior.

Seoul’s National Intelligence Service is expecting another ICBM launch either during the upcoming September 9 anniversary, or around October 10, which will mark the anniversary of the establishment of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.

The US is now pushing for the toughest international sanctions on the rogue state’s lifelines: oil supply, overseas labor, and apparel exports. China’s cooperation - so far the only ally North Korea has in the region - will be required to both pass the United Nations Security Council and be effective. Increased geopolitical tensions between North Korea, China, and the US, as well as their respective regional allies, are expected in the coming weeks.

Context

North Korean state media reported that the country successfully tested a hydrogen thermonuclear bomb on Sunday, September 3. The nuclear test was estimated by South Korea's weather agency to comprise a blast yield of at least 50-60 kilotons, roughly five to six times stronger than North Korea's fifth test in September 2016. The test, conducted underground, resulted in the recording of a 6.3-magnitude earthquake, and immediately drew the ire of the international community. South Korea's army and air force conducted live-fire exercises on Sunday in response. Both US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un resorted to tough rhetoric, after having mutually threatened each other in recent months.

Advice

Individuals in east Asia and Oceania are advised to follow all instructions provided by local authorities and to monitor developments.