Iraq: Negotiations hopeful following speculation over military action

Event

Tensions in Iraqi Kurdistan have been mounting in regards to potential military action following the region’s referendum for independence last month; however, it appears that both sides have affirmed their commitment to a negotiated settlement over the disputed areas. On Wednesday, October 11, the Kurdish Regional Security Council (KRSC) released a message via Twitter stating that Iraqi forces were preparing for an assault against Kurdistan in Kirkuk. On Thursday morning, the United Nations Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS) reported that some roads leading into Kurdistan had been closed and that Peshmerga (Kurdish security force) checkpoints had been erected.  However, latest reporting indicates that road blocks have been cleared.

Context

While Baghdad had stated that as part of its 13-point plan issued on September 27, following the Kurdish referendum, that it reserved the right to deploy forces to the disputed areas, Prime Minister Abadi has reiterated on a number of occasions that military forces would not be used.  The Kurdish government also recently stated their willingness to negotiate the status of the airports, border-crossing points, and the banks in the region. It therefore remains unlikely that military force will be used in the region.

The autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan region officially includes three provinces (Erbil, Dahuk, and Sulaymaniyah) protected by a security force (Peshmerga) independent from the Iraqi government. The region held a referendum for independence on September 25, deemed unconstitutional by Baghdad and criticized by neighboring Iran, Turkey, and Syria (home to large Kurdish populations of their own). The international community also expressed concerns. Official results of the referendum announced on September 27 confirm that the "yes" vote for independence won with 92 percent of votes cast.

On September 29, the central Iraqi government in Baghdad banned all international flights to and from Iraqi Kurdistan until further notice, with an exception for humanitarian and emergency flights (pre-approved by Baghdad). On October 2, it was announced that foreigners stranded in Iraqi Kurdistan due to the international flight ban would be permitted to leave the region via domestic flights to Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) without obtaining an Iraqi visa (if they entered the region with a Kurdistan visa).

Advice

Though current tensions are unlikely to escalate beyond rhetoric and political/economic measures, continued uncertainty will likely beset business travel and operational planning in Iraqi Kurdistan (KRI), particularly in disputed areas such as Kirkuk. Likewise, travel between the KRI and federal Iraq, Turkey, and Iran may be subject to short-notice disruptions. In all cases, travelers to the KRI now require a full Iraqi visa to pass through Iraq’s international airports or border crossings. Individuals currently in the region are advised to contact Iraqi consulates and airlines for further information.

Generally speaking, the security environment in Iraq remains complex. Although travel is permissible in some areas, other areas should be considered strictly off limits. Professional security advice and support should be sought prior to all travel.