Pakistan: Former PM to return to Islamabad November 2 /update 4

Event

After a series of delays to his planned arrival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is expected to return to Pakistan on Thursday, November 2. Sharif is scheduled to arrive at Benazir Bhutto International Airport (ISB) in Islamabad at around 09:00 (local time) on Thursday, and is slated to face corruption charges at the Accountability Courts on Friday, November 3. 

Although initially scheduled to return to Pakistan on October 24, Sharif has postponed his arrival several times. He first delayed his return in order to first travel to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to perform Umrah (an Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca) and to meet with supporters. He was then expected to return to Pakistan on October 29, however, Sharif postponed the trip again and returned to London, where he met with Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and other senior members of Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N party on October 31.

The former prime minister continues to enjoy substantial support, notably in Punjab province, and his return to Pakistan and subsequent court proceedings are likely to prompt demonstrations among his followers. Large crowds and associated transportation disruptions, as well as an increased security presence, are to be expected, particularly surrounding the airport upon his arrival back to the country and in the vicinity of the Accountability Courts in the coming days.

Context

On Thursday, October 19, Sharif was charged with corruption along with his daughter and her husband. Earlier, in July, Sharif was ousted from power by the Supreme Court after the Panama Papers leaks revealed he and his family used offshore holding companies to acquire luxury properties in London. If found guilty, the former prime minister may face prison time. Sharif has repeatedly denied all corruption charges and accused the judiciary of carrying out a political vendetta against him. Sharif has been in London (UK), where his wife is receiving medical treatment, since October 5.

Sharif served three terms as prime minister and has played a central role in Pakistani politics, strongly advocating for the primacy of civilian rule over the long-standing military establishment.  Many of his supporters accuse high-standing military officials of being behind the Supreme Court's push against Sharif. Meanwhile, his indictment is expected to increase support for the main opposition leader, Imran Khan, ahead of the 2018 general elections.

Advice

Individuals in Pakistan are advised to keep abreast of the situation and to avoid all demonstrations.