Zimbabwe: Political situation at a standstill November 17 /update 6

Event

As of Friday, November 17, the situation remains calm throughout the country, including in the capital Harare, two days after the military seized power. Despite ongoing negotiations between the military and the government mediated by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the political situation remains at a standstill; President Robert Mugabe appears to be refusing to step down while military leaders are trying to negotiate his departure and install a provisional government. On Friday morning, the military announced that it had arrested some of Mugabe’s political allies, labelled as "criminals." Furthermore, according to an official source, former Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, whose firing last week triggered the military takeover, has returned to the country. Meanwhile, some foreign governments, including the US and UK, continue to advise their citizens to shelter in place until the situation stabilizes. An increased security presence as well as transportation disruptions due to checkpoints is to be expected. Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport (HRE) in Harare appears to be operating as normal.

Context

Zimbabwe's military took control of state broadcaster ZBC in Harare early on November 15. A military spokesperson read a statement on live television noting that President Mugabe was safe, that his security was "guaranteed," and that the takeover was intended to "deal with those committing crimes" against the Zimbabwean people. The spokesperson added that the situation would normalize "once the mission is accomplished." The military has promised to keep the public safe, while advising individuals to limit movements and noting that "any provocation will be met with an appropriate response."

The events of the last 72 hours transpired in an already-tense political climate in Zimbabwe. On November 6, Mugabe fired Mnangagwa for allegedly plotting against the government; Mnangagwa was also expelled from the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party. The action, widely seen as clearing the way for President Mugabe's wife, Grace Mugabe, to take over the position, added further friction within the already factionalizing ZANU-PF party. On November 13, General Chiwenga, a ZANU-PF member, criticized the purge of high-ranking ZANU-PF members who had fought in the country's war for independence in the 1960s and 1970s.

Mugabe came to power after Zimbabwe gained independence in 1980 and, although 93 years old, has not named a successor nor indicated a clear plan for what would come after his departure. ZANU-PF again endorsed him as its candidate - despite serious health concerns - for the 2018 election. However, the party has become divided over who will eventually succeed him, leading to rising tensions.

Advice

Individuals in Zimbabwe, particularly in Harare, are advised to closely monitor the situation and shelter in place until the situation has stabilized. If outside travel is necessary, individuals should anticipate delays at military checkpoints and should cooperate with any requests made by officials.