Madagascar: Provisional election results released Nov. 11; second round likely /update 1

Event

According to provisional results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) on Sunday, November 11, presidential candidate Andry Rajoelina is in the lead with 40.87 percent of the vote, versus Marc Ravalomanana's 35.99. Incumbent President Hery Rajaonarimampianina only secured 7.01 percent.

Rajaonarimampianina and Ravalomanana have both claimed that irregularities occurred during the voting, calling the elections fraudulent, accusations that were denied by the CENI. The allegations increase the risk of demonstrations in the coming days, particularly upon the release of the final results, expected November 29. If none of the candidates secure an outright victory (more than 50 percent), a likely scenario, a second round will take place on December 19.

Context

The first round of presidential elections was held on November 7. According to the CENI, as of November 11 votes from 7597 out of 24,852 polling stations had been counted.

Advice

As a precautionary measure, individuals present in Madagascar are advised to monitor local media, avoid all protests and demonstrations due to the risk of violence, and refrain from discussing domestic political issues in public.