Ethiopia: Authorities continue to normalize, re-establish public services and tighten security in Tigray region as of Dec. 16 /update 11

Event

Ethiopian officials continue to tighten security and re-establish public services in Tigray Region as they attempt to return the area to normalcy after the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) regained control of significant positions in the region, including the capital Mekelle. The Ethiopian Civil Aviation Authority (ECAA) reopened Tigray's airspace for local and international flights Dec. 14 following Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's visit to Mekelle the previous day. Officials closed the airspace Nov. 4 after Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) fighters attacked an ENDF military base in Dashena. Authorities have also restored power and telephone communication in the region as of Dec. 14 and requested businesses to resume operations.

Additionally, Tigray's provisional administration launched a campaign to disarm civilians in the area, ordering residents to submit their arms to the authorities before the start of house-to-house search operations Dec. 16. The disarmament process could trigger clashes between security forces and residents.

Despite ENDF's success in controlling large areas in Tigray, reports indicate isolated hostilities between federal forces and TPLF in Tembene and Shire. After losing Mekelle and major towns, TPLF vowed to use guerrilla warfare to target government facilities, military bases, and officials. Further clashes and violence are likely in the Tigray region, especially Mekelle, through late December. Damage or destruction of infrastructure are probable in Mekelle and may lead to prolonged utility and communications disruptions. Hospitals and other emergency medical providers, including ambulance services, may be rendered inoperable. Residential and commercial areas could experience collateral impact if clashes continue in the city and major towns. Authorities may implement restrictions on communications, enforce curfews, and ban public gatherings. Spontaneous or planned demonstrations in response to the federal army's capture of the city are possible in Mekelle and other towns in Tigray Region. Authorities will most likely move quickly to disperse any gatherings that may materialize.

Context

Political tensions between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigray Region escalated into open conflict following a dispute over postponing the nation's Aug. 20 general elections. Tigray Region held regional elections in September, defying a resolution on the polls reached by Ethiopia's legislature, the House of Federation (HoF). Tigray officials asserted that the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) had no authority as its term expired Oct. 5; hence, the region would not adhere to new federal laws and regulations. In retaliation, the HoF decided to cut a federal subsidy to the Tigray Regional State Council Oct. 6 - a move Tigrayan authorities considered tantamount to a declaration of war.

The military clashes between the federal forces and Tigrayan militias were a continuation of the fractious relationship the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had had with the TPLF and other Tigrayan groups. The recent spike in tensions was the latest display of the long-running power struggle between the prime minister and Tigrayan elites, who disapprove of extensive reforms put forward by the current administration. The TPLF refused to join the PP, a new merger of former ruling coalition partners, due to Ahmed's perceived attack on Tigrayan political elites and interests.

Thousands of people have died in fighting and airstrikes since the conflict erupted Nov. 4. Both parties have also accused the other of targeting civilians; the federal government accuses TPLF-affiliated group, Samir, of killing hundreds of ethnic Amhara in Mai Kadra town, Tigray region. UN authorities reported that Sudanese officials had received tens of thousands of refugees.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to the Tigray Region and areas bordering it in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations and weapons storage sites in the city, as well as administrative buildings and strategic infrastructure that may be targets, including power stations, media, communication, and transport facilities. Persons in Tigray should liaise with trusted contacts. Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form, and find shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If traveling is unavoidable, do so in a convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.