Ethiopia: Federal army and police forces rescue at least one thousand military officers in Tigray region Dec. 10 /update 10

Event

Ethiopian federal authorities announced the rescue of at least 1,000 Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) officers during a joint operation by special forces in the Tigray region on Dec. 10. The officers, including one general and hundreds of high-ranking officials, have been detained by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) since Nov. 3. The TPLF captured the officers prior to an attack targeting the ENDF's base in Dashena Nov. 4.

Despite the ENDF's successful rescue operation, clashes and violence will likely remain a threat in the Tigray region, especially Mekelle, through late December. Damage or destruction of infrastructure is likely in Mekelle and may lead to prolonged utility and communications disruptions. Hospitals and other emergency medical providers, including ambulance services, may be rendered inoperable. Residential and commercial areas could be targeted if clashes continue in the city and major towns. Authorities may implement restrictions on communications, enforce curfews, and ban public gatherings. Spontaneous or planned demonstrations in response to the federal army capture of the city are possible in Mekelle and other towns in the Tigray region. Authorities will most likely move quickly to disperse any gatherings that may materialize.

The heaviest fighting between the federal government and TPLF forces has ended following the ENDF's capture of Mekelle's region capital Nov. 28, however, TPLF leaders vowed guerrilla warfare to follow after the regional army's retreat from a strong base in Hagere Mariam. Although unconfirmed clashes have been reported in Shire and Tembiene area, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has declared a victory of the federal government forces and the continuation of operations to apprehend TPLF leaders.

The conflict has also spread beyond the Tigray region, as the TPLF has launched at least two rocket attacks into Bahir Dar in the Amhara region, including at the Bahir Dar (BJR) and Gondar (GDQ) airports and targets in Eritrea. The TPLF also believes Eritrea is supporting the Ethiopian federal government. Several ethnically motivated attacks on civilian populations by both sides have been reported since the clashes began. There are concerns that similar, intensifying ethnic tensions could provoke violence in other areas of the country. Protests in support of federal forces have been reported in several cities across Ethiopia. Security incidents, including explosions, have also been reported in Addis Ababa, though it is currently unclear if these incidents are linked to the conflict.

Context

Political tensions between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigray Region escalated into open conflict following a dispute over postponing the nation's Aug. 20 general elections. Tigray Region held regional elections in September, defying a resolution on the polls reached by Ethiopia's legislature, the House of Federation (HoF). Tigray officials assert that the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) has no authority as its term expired Oct. 5; hence, the region will not adhere to new federal laws and regulations. In retaliation, the HoF decided to cut a federal subsidy to the Tigray Regional State Council Oct. 6 - a move Tigrayan authorities considered tantamount to a declaration of war.

The current military clashes between the federal forces and Tigrayan militias are a continuation of the fractious relationship the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has had with the TPLF and other Tigrayan groups. The recent spike in tensions is the latest display of the long-running power struggle between the prime minister and Tigrayan elites, who disapprove of extensive reforms put forward by the current administration. The TPLF has refused to join the PP, a new merger of former ruling coalition partners, due to Ahmed's perceived attack on Tigrayan political elites and interests.

Thousands of people have been killed in fighting and airstrikes since the conflict erupted on Nov. 4. UN authorities said that Sudanese officials had received tens of thousands of refugees. Both parties have been accused of targeting civilians; the federal government accuses TPLF-affiliated group, Samir, of killing hundreds of ethnic Amhara in Mai Kadra town, Tigray region.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to the Tigray Region and areas bordering it in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations and weapons storage sites in the city, as well as administrative buildings and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted, including power stations, media, communication, and transport facilities. Persons in Tigray should liaise with trusted contacts. Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form, and find shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If traveling is unavoidable, do so in a convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.