Ethiopia: Fighting ongoing in the Tigray Region as of Dec. 7 /update 9

Event

Federal armed forces continue to clash with regional forces in northern Ethiopia as of Dec. 7, resulting in casualties. The fighting follows the capture of Mekelle by the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) Nov. 28. The federal government has denied reports of civilian casualties in and around the city.

Damage or destruction of infrastructure is likely in Mekelle and may lead to prolonged utility and communications disruptions. Hospitals and other emergency medical providers, including ambulance services, may be rendered inoperable. Residential and commercial areas could be targeted if clashes continue in the city. Authorities may implement restrictions on communications, enforce curfews, and ban public gatherings. Spontaneous or planned demonstrations in response to the federal army capture of the city are possible in Mekelle and other towns in the Tigray region. Authorities will most likely move quickly to disperse any such gatherings that may materialize.

The heaviest fighting remains concentrated in the west of Tigray Region along regional border areas in the north and southeast and on the approaches to Mekelle. Thousands of federal troops with air and artillery support have been involved in the fighting. Official statements claim that federal forces have captured significant territory in Tigray, including the towns of Aksum, Adwa, Shire, Raya, and Adigrat. Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) officials have claimed several victories against ENDF forces, including the destruction of a mechanized division in an assault at Raya-Wajirat. Both sides claim that the other has lost a significant number of personnel and equipment, though such statements are likely to be unreliable in the short term. Nevertheless, available reporting suggests that the clashes have involved some degree of rocket and gun artillery, armor, and air support, in addition to small arms fire.

The conflict has also spread beyond the Tigray region, as the TPLF has launched at least two rocket attacks into Bahir Dar in the Amhara region, including at the Bahir Dar (BJR) and Gondar (GDQ) airports and targets in Eritrea. The TPLF also believes Eritrea is supporting the Ethiopian federal government. Several ethnically-motivated attacks on civilian populations by both sides have been reported since the clashes began. There are concerns that similar, intensifying ethnic tensions could provoke violence in other areas of the country. Protests in support of federal forces have been reported in several cities across Ethiopia. Security incidents, including explosions, have also been reported in Addis Ababa, though it is currently unclear if these incidents are linked to the conflict.

Context

Relations between Eritrea and the TPLF, a regional party in the Tigray Region that encompasses a large part of the border with Eritrea, remain hostile, having deteriorated further after Eritrea's 2019 border closure.

Political tensions between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigray Region escalated into open conflict following a dispute over postponing the nation's Aug. 20 general elections. Tigray Region held regional elections in September, defying a resolution on the polls reached by Ethiopia's legislature, the House of Federation (HoF). Tigray officials assert that the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) has no authority as its term expired Oct. 5; hence, the region will not adhere to new federal laws and regulations. In retaliation, the HoF decided to cut a federal subsidy to the Tigray Regional State Council Oct. 6 - a move Tigrayan authorities considered tantamount to a declaration of war. TPLF officials have threatened that Tigray could unilaterally secede from Ethiopia if the federal government continues armed conflict in the region. Such moves will likely trigger a territorial dispute with the neighboring Amhara region, sparking clashes along their shared border.

The current clashes between the federal forces and Tigrayan militias are a continuation of the fractious relationship the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has had with the TPLF and other Tigrayan groups. The recent spike in tensions is the latest display of the long-running power struggle between the prime minister and Tigrayan elites, who disapprove of extensive reforms put forward by the current administration. The TPLF has refused to join the PP, a new merger of former ruling coalition partners, due to Ahmed's perceived attack on Tigrayan political elites and interests.

Thousands of people have been killed in fighting and airstrikes since the conflict erupted on Nov. 4. UN authorities said that Sudanese officials had received tens of thousands of refugees. The fighting has also caused significant disruptions to the power supply, transport, communication, and cross-border travel. According to Tigray officials, Ethiopia's Federal Air force destroyed the Tekeze power station on Nov. 12, resulting in widespread power outages; federal authorities have denied attacking the civilian electricity facility. The Ethiopian Civil Aviation Authority's (ECAA) indefinite closure of airspace in northern Ethiopia remains in effect; flights are currently not operating at Alula Aba Nega (MQX) airport in Mekelle, as well as Shire (SHC), Axum (AXU), and Humera (HUE), and Gondar (GDQ) airports. In addition, the Gedarif and Kassala border crossing between Ethiopia and Sudan remain closed. The six-month state of emergency (SoE) declared in Tigray Nov. 6 remains in effect.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to the Tigray Region and areas bordering it in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations and weapons storage sites in the city, as well as administrative buildings and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted, including power stations, media, communication, and transport facilities. Persons in Tigray should liaise with trusted contacts. Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form, and find shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If traveling is unavoidable, do so in a convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.