Europe: Storm Bella to bring heavy precipitation and strong winds to parts of Europe from Dec. 26-28

Event

A strong low-pressure system named Storm Bella will bring rounds of heavy precipitation and strong winds to much of northwestern Europe from Dec. 26-28. The affected areas include the UK, Ireland, southern Norway, southwestern Sweden, Denmark, western Germany, the Benelux region, France, and northern Spain. Forecast models indicate initial rounds of rain will arrive in southern Norway, Ireland, and Scotland early Dec. 26 before gradually spreading eastward and southward throughout the day and encompassing England and Denmark by the late afternoon. Precipitation will arrive in Sweden, the Benelux region, and northern France by midday Dec. 27, and central France, western Germany, and northern Spain by the evening. The precipitation will be accompanied by gale-force winds. Some uncertainty remains in the forecast and is subject to changes over the coming days.

Government Advisories
In response to Storm Bella, the UK Met Office has issued orange-level warnings, the second-highest level on a four-tiered scale, for strong winds along the southern coast of England. Yellow warning - the second-lowest level on a four-tiered scale - has been issued for rain and wind have been issued across much of England and Wales. Additionally, Met Eireann has issued yellow-level warnings for the entire western coast of Ireland beginning Dec. 26. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute has issued orange-level warnings for heavy snowfall in portions of southern Norway. Authorities across western Europe could upgrade and expand coverage of the weather warnings over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Forecast models indicate widespread rainfall totals of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) are likely in the hardest-hit areas, including Ireland, western Scotland, Wales, England, coastal Benelux region, northern and western France and the northern coast of Spain, Locally higher totals of up to 15 cm (6 inches) are possible in western Scotland, Ireland, southwestern France, and northern Spain. Additionally, heavy snowfall is likely across Norway, especially in Vestland and More og Romsdal. The rain is also likely to change over to snow in northeastern France, southwestern Germany, and the higher elevations of Scotland. Flash and areal flooding is possible, especially in areas where the soil is saturated from previous storms. Such flooding could occur in low-lying communities near watercourses and other bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain. In addition to the heavy rainfall, the system will likely bring widespread damaging winds to much of western Europe. Winds could gust as high as 110 kph (70 mph), especially in western Ireland and western France. The adverse weather conditions are likely to cause power outages throughout the affected area.

Transport
Storm Bella will likely cause transport disruptions across affected areas of northwestern Europe through at least Dec. 28. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Flooding downpours could inundate some low-lying roads in areas with poor drainage. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion.

The disruptive weather will likely cause delays and cancellations at regional airports, including those serving Dublin (DUB), London (LHR, LGW, STN), Oslo (OSL), Manchester (MAN), Glasgow (GLA), Paris (CDG, ORY), Copenhagen (CPH), Brussels (BRU), Amsterdam (AMS), and Dusseldorf (DUS). Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and maritime passenger traffic in the Bay of Biscay, Irish Sea, Atlantic Ocean, North Sea, English Channel, Irish Sea, Norwegian Sea, the Skagerrak, or the Kattegat. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or debris is cleared. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transportation reservations and business arrangements prior to travel in the affected area through at least Dec. 28. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions if routing shipments through affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides. Charge battery-powered devices in the event of prolonged electricity outages.

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