Israel, Palestine: Conflict, terrorism threats, and radicalized individuals likely to undermine security through 2021 /update 2

Event

The possibility of further conflict and terrorism continues to undermine the security environment in Israel and the Palestinian Territories. Radicalized individuals, as well as domestic and regional militant groups, have carried out attacks within Israel and the Palestinian Territories and continue to threaten further aggression. The threat of artillery fire in areas adjacent to the Gaza Strip and near the Lebanese and Syrian borders remains high. During periods of heightened tensions, an increase in cross-border rocket and mortar attacks is likely, though Israel's multi-tiered missile defense system appears to have greatly mitigated the danger posed by longer-range weapons.

Terrorism
The overall threat of terrorism in Israel and the Palestinian Territories remains high; a significant threat from organized militant groups and radicalized individuals exists regionwide. Terrorists may conduct vehicle rammings, stabbings, and attacks with small-caliber weapons and improvised explosives. The terrorism threat increases during periods of heightened Palestinian nationalism, such as during Muslim religious observances, amid controversial political developments, or on anniversaries marking key events, such as Al-Nakba (Catastrophe) Day.

The threat from radicalized individuals is assessed to be highest in Israeli-controlled parts of the West Bank and in greater Jerusalem, particularly East Jerusalem. Common targets include Israeli police and military interests, Jewish civilians, Israeli/Jewish settlements in the West Bank, and border crossings. Effective security measures have made well-planned, mass-casualty attacks very difficult to execute; however, attacks by lone, opportunistic assailants have occurred despite the heavy Israeli security presence. Foreign nationals, specifically Westerners, Western diplomatic interests, and tourist areas, are also at risk of attack.

Following low-level attacks, Israeli authorities increase the security presence in the affected area. Additional security measures often include checkpoints, patrols, and raids. Authorities may also seal off access to the West Bank or curtail movement in and out of Palestinian areas without warning.

Stabbing Attacks
Israel and Israeli-controlled areas of the West Bank have been affected by stabbing attacks usually perpetrated by Palestinians targeting Israeli security force personnel and civilians. Due to the limited availability of firearms among Palestinians in Israel and the West Bank, assailants resort to attacks using knives or other edged weapons. Stabbings are often uncoordinated and not under the direction of an organized militant group. Attacks or attempted attacks near security checkpoints are extremely common and usually occur in clusters - which coincide with anti-Israel civil unrest by Palestinians in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Arab Palestinian towns in Israel. Stabbing attacks against Israelis are most likely to occur in the Old City and near Israeli settlements in the West Bank; however, such incidents are also possible in major urban areas elsewhere, such as Tel Aviv.

Vehicle Attacks
There is a persistent threat of vehicle-ramming attacks in the West Bank and, to a lesser extent, Israel proper. This tactic involves deliberately driving a vehicle into a crowd of people with the aim of causing as many casualties as possible. Assailants generally employ the tactic against Israeli security force checkpoints, convoys, and patrols, as well as bus stops and other civilian targets, particularly near Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Such attacks are typically uncoordinated, and Israeli personnel are quick to respond and neutralize the threat. These types of attacks are very difficult to predict, though their likelihood generally increases during periods of heightened tension surrounding controversial political developments or anniversaries marking key events.

Checkpoints
Israeli forces use a complicated system of fixed and "flying" (temporary) checkpoints throughout the West Bank. These security measures can be difficult to navigate, which can be problematic, given the Israeli security force personnel are authorized to respond aggressively to perceived threats. Even an accidental breach of the security cordon near a checkpoint can prompt Israeli security forces to respond with deadly force.

Threat of Conflict
Israel remains threatened by conflict with neighboring states and territories, including from Syria, Lebanon, as well as from militants based in the Gaza Strip.

Syria and Lebanon
Tensions along Israel's northern border with Syria are high. Israeli forces have maintained a heightened alert level in the Golan Heights since the start of the Syrian civil war and have repeatedly expressed concerns over the growing presence of Iranian proxies in the region. The Israeli military aims to prevent a rapid build-up of Iranian-backed forces in southwest Syria and regularly launches cross-border air and artillery strikes at suspected Iranian proxies in the region. Occasionally, Iranian and Syrian proxies retaliate with cross-border fire into northern Israel.

Tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border are also high. Israeli forces have not made any overt incursions into Lebanese territory in recent years; however, Israeli officials regularly threaten to launch counteroperations against Hizballah in the region. Any overt Israeli military operation in southern Lebanon could elicit retaliatory attacks against sites throughout northern Israel.

Gaza Strip
Gaza-based militants regularly attempt to breach the Israeli security perimeter or plant explosives near the border fence. Militants often throw hand grenades and other small improvised explosives toward Israeli soldiers positioned along the border. Militants also launch incendiary kites and explosives attached to balloons towards residential areas in southern Israel adjacent to the Gaza Strip causing minor property damage.

Artillery fire in areas adjacent to the Gaza Strip also poses a high threat. During periods of heightened tensions, Gaza-based militants ramp up mortar and rocket attacks into southern Israel. However, most projectiles land near or even within the Gaza Strip. Israel's multi-tiered missile defense system appears capable of intercepting longer-range ordnance over major population centers, though impacts in residential areas near the Gaza border do occur.

Advice

If operating in northern Israel, avoid areas within 10 km (6 miles) of the country's northern border, if possible. If operating in southern Israel, avoid areas within 5 km (3 miles) of the Gaza buffer zone. If airstrikes, artillery fire, or warning sirens are reported, report to the nearest bomb shelter until given further instructions by authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors, away from windows and exterior walls and, if possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Throughout Israel and the West Bank, heed all instructions from local security forces. Register and remain in close contact with diplomatic missions. Maintain positive control of all essential identification and travel documents at all times.