Madagascar: Moderate Tropical Storm Eloise makes landfall in the Sava region Jan. 19 /update 3

Event

Moderate Tropical Storm Eloise made landfall in the Sava region of northeastern Madagascar, Jan. 19. As of 2100 EAT, the center of circulation was approximately 350 km (218 miles) south-southeast of Antsiranana, Diana, Madagascar. The latest forecast guidance indicates that the storm will track southwestward toward central Madagascar through Jan. 21, likely weakening into a zone of disturbed weather. However, further strengthening is forecast as it enters the Mozambique Channel, Jan. 21, potentially reaching severe tropical storm intensity by Jan. 22 and tropical cyclone intensity by Jan. 23. Long-range forecasts indicate Eloise could potentially make landfall in southeastern Mozambique Jan. 23 or Jan. 24 before meandering over the region. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.

Government Advisories
Eloise will likely continue to bring heavy rain and strong winds across portions of north-central and central Madagascar through Jan. 21. As of 2100 EAT Jan. 19, authorities have issued a red alert (imminent danger) for Sava, Analanjirofo, Bealanana, Befandriana Avaratra and Mandritsara and a yellow alert (threat) for Toamasina I-II and Alaotra. All weather warnings have been lifted in Brickaville, Vatomandry, Mahanoro and Moramanga. Authorities may issue warnings over the coming days, depending on the track of the storm.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas in northern and north-central Madagascar in the coming days. Forecast models indicate the most rainfall will occur in northwestern Madagascar north of where Eloise tracks. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days.

Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system tracks over Madagascar. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, the storm will produce damaging wind gusts of up to 65 kph (40 mph) in Madagascar as it tracks over the country. Widespread and prolonged power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines are likely.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair, or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where authorities forecast severe weather conditions. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas affected by the storm. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo Madagascar