Sudan, Ethiopia: Military and international tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia remain high, especially at the Al-Fashqa border area, as of Jan. 21

Event

Additional violent clashes are possible along the Ethiopian and Sudanese border, particularly in the disputed Al-Fashqa area. As of Jan. 21, a low-level exchange of fires continues along the Al-Fashqa area. Ethiopian authorities have not launched a counteroperation. Nevertheless, further skirmishes, as well as localized escalations in violence, could occur without warning in or around the conflict zone.

Increased security and military presence are highly likely near and around the conflict zone. Traffic and transit disruptions are possible due to the presence. Localized business disruptions are possible if the conflict prompts transit delays.

Context

The disputed area was controlled by Ethiopian forces for more than 30 years. Sudanese armed forces advanced into the area Dec. 16, 2020 after Ethiopian troops were moved to deal with conflict in the Tigray region. Since then, both countries are increasing their military presence and security posture along the shared border. In the late months of 2020, a series of violent incidents and clashes took place along the border resulting in at least a dozen fatalities suffered by both countries. After an Ethiopian fighter jet allegedly entered Sudanese airspace, the Sudanese Civil Aviation Authority (SCAA) implemented air traffic restrictions over the Al-Gedaref and Al-Fashqa region Jan. 14. The tension at the border prompted talks on redrawing the territory between the two countries, however, the first round of discussions held in Khartoum, Sudan Dec. 22 ended without coming to an agreement after Ethiopia demanded Sudanese forces withdraw forces before resuming talks.

Advice

Consider avoiding nonessential travel to Al-Fashqa area until the situation stabilizes. If operating in these areas, exercise extreme caution; carry proper identification at all times and heed the instructions of local security personnel. Consider alternate methods for routing shipments in the vicinity of the conflict zone. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.