Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Lucas continues tracking southeastward in the Coral Sea Feb. 1 /update 1

Event

Category-2 Tropical Cyclone Lucas continues to strengthen as it tracks southeastward in the Coral Sea Feb. 1. As of 1700 NCT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 978 km (608 miles) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Forecast models indicate the system will maintain strength as a Category-2 Tropical Cyclone as it tracks in a southeastern direction through at least Feb. 3. Beginning Feb. 3, the track will shift southward as the system begins to weaken while approaching eastern New Caledonia, where landfall is forecast Feb. 3 as a Category-1 Tropical Cyclone. Following landfall, the system will continue to weaken as it tracks southwestward into the Pacific Ocean. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Weather Warnings
As of Feb. 1, authorities with the Vanuatu Meteorological Services have issued a tropical cyclone advisory for the nation associated with Tropical Cyclone Lucas. Additionally, a severe weather warning for heavy rainfall has been issued for the central and southern islands of Vanuatu. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
Tropical Cyclone Lucas will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas in New Caledonia and Vanuatu in the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, and rivers, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Elevated water levels are likely in catchment areas where flood watches and warnings are in place. Rain-induced landslides could occur in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system approaches land. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, the storm will produce damaging wind gusts as it approaches New Caledonia and Vanuatu. Widespread and prolonged power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines are possible, especially in Grande Terre, New Caledonia.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through at least Feb. 5. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including La Tontouta International Airport (NOU) in Noumea, New Caledonia.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Vanuatu Meteorological Services
Meteo-France Nouvelle Caledonie