Ecuador: Opposition activists likely to demonstrate Feb. 12-15, following the presidential election /update 1

Event

Supporters of presidential opposition candidate Yaku Perez are likely to hold demonstrations in multiple locations throughout Ecuador Feb. 12-15, to demand transparency in the counting of the votes of the presidential election. Leaders of Perez's party Pachakutik, as well as other organizations including the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Confederacion de Nacionalidades Indigenas del Ecuador, CONAIE), have called on supporters to mobilize since Feb. 8, and have called on them to remain vigilant to the electoral counting.

The most likely location for demonstrations continues to be Quito, around the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, CNE), the institution in charge of organizing the elections and counting the votes. Protests in Guayaquil, outside the Electoral Delegation in the city, as well as in the cities of Cuenca, Manta, Quevedo, Esmeraldas, and Machala, are also likely.

Thousands of people may participate in the demonstrations, especially if Perez supporters believe the process has not been transparent. Roadblocks in major inter-provincial highways are possible, as well as disruptions in downtown Quito and Guayaquil. Heightened security around government buildings is likely. Clashes between police and demonstrators cannot be ruled out. Counterprotests, especially from supporters of presidential candidate Guillermo Lasso, are also possible.

Context

Ecuador held the first round of its presidential election Feb. 7. No candidate obtained the necessary number of votes to win the election, and a runoff with the two main contenders will be held April 11. Andres Arauz, supported by the Union for Hope (Union por la Esperanza) alliance, finished in first place with more than 32 percent of the vote. Yaku Perez of Pachakutik appeared to be in second place in the initial results, but as the vote count progressed, he was overcome by Guillermo Lasso, supported by an alliance between CREO and the Social Christian Party. As of early Feb. 12, Lasso has an advantage of more than 33,000 votes over Perez.

Perez has demanded a recount of the votes in seven provinces: Guayas, Pichincha, Manabi, Los Rios, Esmeraldas, El Oro, and Bolivar, where he said his campaign has found irregularities. Leaders of the CNE are analyzing the proposal, and despite almost no votes left to count, have not made official the runoff between Arauz and Lasso. Both candidates will hold a meeting, in an attempt to reduce tensions and ensure both candidates and their supporters will support the result, once all verifications have been completed.

Advice

Avoid all protests. Confirm appointments in advance. Allow additional time if operating in Ecuador, Feb. 12-15, especially in Quito and Guayaquil. If violence breaks out near you, leave the area immediately, and seek shelter in a secure location.