Ecuador: Opposition activists likely to demonstrate nationwide Feb. 10-11, following the presidential election

Event

Supporters of presidential opposition candidate Yaku Perez are likely to hold demonstrations in multiple locations throughout Ecuador Feb. 10-11, to demand transparency in the counting of the votes of the presidential election. Leaders of Perez's party Pachakutik, as well as other organizations including the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Confederacion de Nacionalidades Indigenas del Ecuador, CONAIE), have called on supporters to demonstrate, though they have not provided details of specific times or locations of the protests.

The demonstrations are most likely in Quito, around the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, CNE), the institution in charge of organizing the elections and counting the votes. Protests in Guayaquil, and in the province of Azuay, especially the city of Cuenca, are also likely.

Tens of thousands of people are likely to participate in the demonstrations if they are held. Roadblocks in major inter-provincial highways are possible, as well as disruptions in downtown Quito. Heightened security around government buildings is likely. Clashes between police and demonstrators cannot be ruled out. Counter-protests, especially from supporters of presidential candidate Guillermo Lasso, are also possible, especially in Guayaquil and Quito.

Context

Ecuador held the first round of its presidential election Feb. 7. No candidate obtained the necessary number of votes to win the election, and a runoff with the two main contenders will be held April 11. Andres Arauz, supported by the Union for Hope (Union por la Esperanza) alliance finished in first place with more than 32 percent of the vote. Yaku Perez of Pachakutik is currently in second place with nearly 20 percent of the vote. However, his advantage over Guillermo Lasso, supported by an alliance between CREO and the Social Christian Party, is less than 15,000 votes, with tens of thousands of votes still to be counted.

Perez's supporters fear an alliance between government leaders, Lasso, and former president Rafael Correa - a main supporter of Arauz - will pressure the CNE to manipulate the results and confirm Lasso in second place of the election. However, so far there has not been any evidence of manipulation or electoral fraud, and the counting of the votes continues.

Advice

Avoid all protests. Confirm appointments in advance. Allow additional time if operating in Ecuador, Feb. 10-11, especially in Quito. If violence breaks out near you, leave the area immediately, and seek shelter in a secure location.